Serie A·Regular Season - 26·
Serie A·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.522.71safe0.22–2.160.67–2.380.89–4.54safer0.00–2.410.44–2.600.41–5.02
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.968.88safe2.06–5.793.22–6.705.28–12.49safer1.57–6.272.75–7.174.32–13.44
Total shots
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8513.9725.82safe7.93–15.7810.40–17.5318.33–33.30safer6.83–16.879.44–18.4916.28–35.35
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction6.999.1316.13safe4.05–9.946.45–11.8110.50–21.75safer3.22–10.775.71–12.558.94–23.32
Blocked shots
40%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.536.92safe1.51–5.271.88–5.183.38–10.45safer0.96–5.811.39–5.682.35–11.49
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.679.56safe2.68–7.112.67–6.675.35–13.78safer2.11–7.682.14–7.204.24–14.88
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.4844.64safe48.69–62.2737.85–51.42safer47.02–63.9436.18–53.10
Passes
74%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction476397873safe409–543330–463739–1007safer391–562313–481704–1042
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction82.1676.47safe78.13–86.1972.14–80.79safer76.84–87.4870.83–82.10
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0214.2626.28safe9.18–14.8611.32–17.2120.50–32.06safer8.43–15.6110.57–17.9518.99–33.57
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.993.36safe0.21–2.530.90–3.091.11–5.62safer0.00–2.830.61–3.380.52–6.21
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.993.70safe0.66–2.760.86–3.121.52–5.88safer0.39–3.020.57–3.410.96–6.43
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
47%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.102.795.89safe1.67–4.541.24–4.352.90–8.89safer1.28–4.930.81–4.772.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.52 0.67–2.38 0.44–2.60 | 2.71 0.89–4.54 0.41–5.02 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.06–5.79 1.57–6.27 | 4.96 3.22–6.70 2.75–7.17 | 8.88 5.28–12.49 4.32–13.44 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.85 7.93–15.78 6.83–16.87 | 13.97 10.40–17.53 9.44–18.49 | 25.82 18.33–33.30 16.28–35.35 | 30% 62% |
| Shots in box | 6.99 4.05–9.94 3.22–10.77 | 9.13 6.45–11.81 5.71–12.55 | 16.13 10.50–21.75 8.94–23.32 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 3.53 1.88–5.18 1.39–5.68 | 6.92 3.38–10.45 2.35–11.49 | 40% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.11 2.11–7.68 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.20 | 9.56 5.35–13.78 4.24–14.88 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 55.48 48.69–62.27 47.02–63.94 | 44.64 37.85–51.42 36.18–53.10 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 476 409–543 391–562 | 397 330–463 313–481 | 873 739–1007 704–1042 | 74% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.16 78.13–86.19 76.84–87.48 | 76.47 72.14–80.79 70.83–82.10 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 12.02 9.18–14.86 8.43–15.61 | 14.26 11.32–17.21 10.57–17.95 | 26.28 20.50–32.06 18.99–33.57 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.83 | 1.99 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.38 | 3.36 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.02 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.96–6.43 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 2.79 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.77 | 5.89 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 47% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+