Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.342.67safe0.37–2.310.48–2.190.85–4.50safer0.12–2.560.25–2.420.37–4.98
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.273.968.23safe2.41–6.132.22–5.714.63–11.84safer1.92–6.621.76–6.173.67–12.80
Total shots
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1211.4523.57safe8.20–16.057.89–15.0116.08–31.06safer7.11–17.146.93–15.9714.03–33.11
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.607.1214.72safe4.66–10.544.44–9.809.10–20.35safer3.83–11.373.70–10.547.53–21.91
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.233.356.58safe1.35–5.111.70–5.003.04–10.11safer0.80–5.651.21–5.502.01–11.15
Corners
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.244.148.38safe2.03–6.452.14–6.144.17–12.59safer1.45–7.031.61–6.673.06–13.70
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction47.2553.71safe40.46–54.0446.92–60.49safer38.79–55.7145.25–62.17
Passes
29%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction431496927safe364–498429–562794–1061safer346–517412–580758–1097
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction73.1277.05safe69.10–77.1572.73–81.38safer67.80–78.4571.42–82.69
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5812.8225.41safe9.75–15.429.88–15.7719.63–31.19safer8.99–16.189.13–16.5218.12–32.70
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.653.69safe0.88–3.200.56–2.751.44–5.95safer0.58–3.500.27–3.040.85–6.54
Yellow cards
31%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.344.18safe0.79–2.891.21–3.472.00–6.36safer0.52–3.150.92–3.761.44–6.91
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.815.52safe1.28–4.151.25–4.372.53–8.51safer0.89–4.540.83–4.791.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.13 1.92–6.62 | 3.96 2.22–5.71 1.76–6.17 | 8.23 4.63–11.84 3.67–12.80 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.12 8.20–16.05 7.11–17.14 | 11.45 7.89–15.01 6.93–15.97 | 23.57 16.08–31.06 14.03–33.11 | 51% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.60 4.66–10.54 3.83–11.37 | 7.12 4.44–9.80 3.70–10.54 | 14.72 9.10–20.35 7.53–21.91 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.11 0.80–5.65 | 3.35 1.70–5.00 1.21–5.50 | 6.58 3.04–10.11 2.01–11.15 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.24 2.03–6.45 1.45–7.03 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.61–6.67 | 8.38 4.17–12.59 3.06–13.70 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Possession % | 47.25 40.46–54.04 38.79–55.71 | 53.71 46.92–60.49 45.25–62.17 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 431 364–498 346–517 | 496 429–562 412–580 | 927 794–1061 758–1097 | 29% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.12 69.10–77.15 67.80–78.45 | 77.05 72.73–81.38 71.42–82.69 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.58 9.75–15.42 8.99–16.18 | 12.82 9.88–15.77 9.13–16.52 | 25.41 19.63–31.19 18.12–32.70 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.65 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.04 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.52–3.15 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.44–6.91 | 31% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 2.81 1.25–4.37 0.83–4.79 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.33 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+