Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.403.13safe0.76–2.700.54–2.251.31–4.95safer0.51–2.950.31–2.480.83–5.43
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.279.52safe3.38–7.112.53–6.025.91–13.12safer2.89–7.602.07–6.484.96–14.08
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4811.6327.12safe11.56–19.418.07–15.2019.63–34.60safer10.46–20.507.11–16.1617.58–36.65
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.186.7816.96safe7.24–13.124.10–9.4611.33–22.58safer6.41–13.953.36–10.209.77–24.15
Blocked shots
41%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.877.59safe1.84–5.602.21–5.524.05–11.12safer1.30–6.151.72–6.013.02–12.16
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.269.65safe3.18–7.602.26–6.265.44–13.86safer2.60–8.181.73–6.794.33–14.97
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction44.3955.39safe37.60–51.1848.61–62.18safer35.93–52.8546.94–63.85
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction397512910safe330–465446–579776–1044safer312–483428–596741–1079
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction73.8880.44safe69.85–77.9176.12–84.76safer68.56–79.2074.81–86.07
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0810.6722.74safe9.24–14.917.72–13.6116.96–28.53safer8.48–15.676.98–14.3615.46–30.03
Offsides
75%
homeawaytotalprediction3.361.374.74safe2.20–4.520.28–2.472.48–6.99safer1.90–4.820.00–2.751.89–7.58
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.953.87safe0.87–2.970.82–3.081.70–6.05safer0.61–3.240.53–3.371.14–6.61
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.406.00safe1.17–4.041.84–4.953.01–8.99safer0.78–4.431.41–5.382.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.40 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 45% 23% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.24 3.38–7.11 2.89–7.60 | 4.27 2.53–6.02 2.07–6.48 | 9.52 5.91–13.12 4.96–14.08 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.48 11.56–19.41 10.46–20.50 | 11.63 8.07–15.20 7.11–16.16 | 27.12 19.63–34.60 17.58–36.65 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.18 7.24–13.12 6.41–13.95 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.20 | 16.96 11.33–22.58 9.77–24.15 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.30–6.15 | 3.87 2.21–5.52 1.72–6.01 | 7.59 4.05–11.12 3.02–12.16 | 41% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.73–6.79 | 9.65 5.44–13.86 4.33–14.97 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 44.39 37.60–51.18 35.93–52.85 | 55.39 48.61–62.18 46.94–63.85 | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 397 330–465 312–483 | 512 446–579 428–596 | 910 776–1044 741–1079 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.88 69.85–77.91 68.56–79.20 | 80.44 76.12–84.76 74.81–86.07 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.91 8.48–15.67 | 10.67 7.72–13.61 6.98–14.36 | 22.74 16.96–28.53 15.46–30.03 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 3.36 2.20–4.52 1.90–4.82 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.75 | 4.74 2.48–6.99 1.89–7.58 | 75% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.87 1.70–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.40 1.84–4.95 1.41–5.38 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.20–9.81 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.