Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
18%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.383.36safe0.01–1.951.53–3.241.54–5.19safer0.00–2.201.30–3.461.06–5.67
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.446.6010.04safe1.58–5.314.85–8.346.43–13.64safer1.09–5.804.39–8.805.48–14.60
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7917.4228.21safe6.86–14.7113.86–20.9820.72–35.69safer5.77–15.8012.90–21.9418.67–37.74
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.0511.3718.42safe4.11–9.998.69–14.0512.80–24.05safer3.28–10.827.95–14.7911.23–25.61
Blocked shots
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.255.258.49safe1.37–5.133.59–6.904.96–12.03safer0.82–5.673.10–7.393.92–13.07
Corners
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction4.156.2010.35safe1.94–6.364.20–8.206.13–14.56safer1.36–6.943.66–8.735.03–15.67
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction34.8665.08safe28.07–41.6558.30–71.87safer26.40–43.3256.63–73.54
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction341599940safe274–409532–665806–1074safer256–427515–683771–1109
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction73.2287.57safe69.19–77.2583.24–91.89safer67.90–78.5481.93–93.20
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7611.2822.04safe7.93–13.608.33–14.2216.26–27.82safer7.17–14.367.58–14.9714.75–29.33
Offsides
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.974.23safe1.10–3.420.88–3.061.98–6.48safer0.80–3.720.59–3.351.39–7.07
Yellow cards
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.533.15safe0.57–2.660.40–2.660.97–5.32safer0.30–2.930.11–2.950.41–5.88
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.082.286.36safe2.64–5.510.73–3.843.37–9.35safer2.26–5.900.30–4.262.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.38 1.53–3.24 1.30–3.46 | 3.36 1.54–5.19 1.06–5.67 | 14% 18% 68% |
| Shots on target | 3.44 1.58–5.31 1.09–5.80 | 6.60 4.85–8.34 4.39–8.80 | 10.04 6.43–13.64 5.48–14.60 | 80% |
| Total shots | 10.79 6.86–14.71 5.77–15.80 | 17.42 13.86–20.98 12.90–21.94 | 28.21 20.72–35.69 18.67–37.74 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 7.05 4.11–9.99 3.28–10.82 | 11.37 8.69–14.05 7.95–14.79 | 18.42 12.80–24.05 11.23–25.61 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.37–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 5.25 3.59–6.90 3.10–7.39 | 8.49 4.96–12.03 3.92–13.07 | 19% 70% |
| Corners | 4.15 1.94–6.36 1.36–6.94 | 6.20 4.20–8.20 3.66–8.73 | 10.35 6.13–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 21% 68% |
| Possession % | 34.86 28.07–41.65 26.40–43.32 | 65.08 58.30–71.87 56.63–73.54 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 341 274–409 256–427 | 599 532–665 515–683 | 940 806–1074 771–1109 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.22 69.19–77.25 67.90–78.54 | 87.57 83.24–91.89 81.93–93.20 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.76 7.93–13.60 7.17–14.36 | 11.28 8.33–14.22 7.58–14.97 | 22.04 16.26–27.82 14.75–29.33 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.10–3.42 0.80–3.72 | 1.97 0.88–3.06 0.59–3.35 | 4.23 1.98–6.48 1.39–7.07 | 45% 20% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.57–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 3.15 0.97–5.32 0.41–5.88 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.08 2.64–5.51 2.26–5.90 | 2.28 0.73–3.84 0.30–4.26 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.56–10.17 | 70% 18% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.