Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
22%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.893.09safe0.23–2.171.04–2.751.27–4.91safer0.00–2.420.81–2.980.79–5.39
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.015.589.59safe2.15–5.873.84–7.335.99–13.20safer1.66–6.363.38–7.795.03–14.15
Total shots
28%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0315.6828.71safe9.10–16.9512.12–19.2521.23–36.20safer8.01–18.0411.16–20.2119.17–38.25
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction8.029.7017.72safe5.08–10.967.02–12.3812.10–23.34safer4.25–11.796.28–13.1210.53–24.91
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.104.327.42safe1.22–4.982.67–5.973.88–10.95safer0.67–5.522.18–6.472.85–11.99
Corners
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.665.4510.10safe2.44–6.873.45–7.455.89–14.31safer1.87–7.442.91–7.984.78–15.42
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction42.8257.40safe36.03–49.6150.62–64.19safer34.36–51.2848.95–65.86
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction394531925safe327–461465–598792–1059safer309–480447–615756–1095
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction80.1484.62safe76.11–84.1680.30–88.95safer74.81–85.4678.99–90.26
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2211.9623.18safe8.38–14.069.02–14.9117.40–28.96safer7.63–14.818.27–15.6615.89–30.47
Offsides
62%
17%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.891.694.58safe1.73–4.050.60–2.792.33–6.83safer1.43–4.350.31–3.071.74–7.42
Yellow cards
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.913.82safe0.86–2.960.78–3.041.64–6.00safer0.60–3.230.49–3.331.08–6.56
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.726.39safe2.23–5.111.16–4.283.40–9.38safer1.85–5.490.74–4.702.59–10.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.89 1.04–2.75 0.81–2.98 | 3.09 1.27–4.91 0.79–5.39 | 24% 22% 54% |
| Shots on target | 4.01 2.15–5.87 1.66–6.36 | 5.58 3.84–7.33 3.38–7.79 | 9.59 5.99–13.20 5.03–14.15 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 13.03 9.10–16.95 8.01–18.04 | 15.68 12.12–19.25 11.16–20.21 | 28.71 21.23–36.20 19.17–38.25 | 28% 66% |
| Shots in box | 8.02 5.08–10.96 4.25–11.79 | 9.70 7.02–12.38 6.28–13.12 | 17.72 12.10–23.34 10.53–24.91 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.22–4.98 0.67–5.52 | 4.32 2.67–5.97 2.18–6.47 | 7.42 3.88–10.95 2.85–11.99 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.66 2.44–6.87 1.87–7.44 | 5.45 3.45–7.45 2.91–7.98 | 10.10 5.89–14.31 4.78–15.42 | 34% 54% |
| Possession % | 42.82 36.03–49.61 34.36–51.28 | 57.40 50.62–64.19 48.95–65.86 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–480 | 531 465–598 447–615 | 925 792–1059 756–1095 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.14 76.11–84.16 74.81–85.46 | 84.62 80.30–88.95 78.99–90.26 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.22 8.38–14.06 7.63–14.81 | 11.96 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.66 | 23.18 17.40–28.96 15.89–30.47 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.89 1.73–4.05 1.43–4.35 | 1.69 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.07 | 4.58 2.33–6.83 1.74–7.42 | 62% 17% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.56 | 39% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.67 2.23–5.11 1.85–5.49 | 2.72 1.16–4.28 0.74–4.70 | 6.39 3.40–9.38 2.59–10.19 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.