Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.162.92safe0.79–2.730.31–2.021.10–4.74safer0.54–2.980.08–2.250.62–5.22
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.984.018.99safe3.12–6.852.26–5.755.38–12.59safer2.63–7.341.80–6.214.43–13.55
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5411.4025.94safe10.61–18.467.84–14.9618.45–33.42safer9.52–19.556.88–15.9216.40–35.48
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.947.6617.61safe7.00–12.884.98–10.3411.98–23.23safer6.17–13.714.24–11.0810.42–24.80
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.382.927.30safe2.50–6.261.26–4.573.76–10.83safer1.96–6.810.77–5.062.73–11.87
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.393.9410.33safe4.18–8.601.94–5.946.12–14.55safer3.60–9.181.41–6.475.01–15.65
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.6741.33safe52.88–66.4634.55–48.12safer51.21–68.1332.88–49.79
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction557394950safe489–624327–460817–1084safer471–642310–478781–1120
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction81.8077.72safe77.77–85.8373.40–82.05safer76.48–87.1272.09–83.36
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2311.3921.62safe7.39–13.078.45–14.3415.84–27.40safer6.63–13.827.70–15.0814.33–28.90
Offsides
62%
19%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.401.293.69safe1.24–3.560.19–2.381.44–5.94safer0.94–3.860.00–2.670.85–6.53
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.893.30safe0.36–2.450.76–3.021.12–5.48safer0.09–2.720.47–3.310.56–6.03
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.355.80safe1.02–3.891.79–4.902.81–8.79safer0.63–4.281.37–5.332.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.16 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.62–5.22 | 51% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.12–6.85 2.63–7.34 | 4.01 2.26–5.75 1.80–6.21 | 8.99 5.38–12.59 4.43–13.55 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.61–18.46 9.52–19.55 | 11.40 7.84–14.96 6.88–15.92 | 25.94 18.45–33.42 16.40–35.48 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.94 7.00–12.88 6.17–13.71 | 7.66 4.98–10.34 4.24–11.08 | 17.61 11.98–23.23 10.42–24.80 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.38 2.50–6.26 1.96–6.81 | 2.92 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 7.30 3.76–10.83 2.73–11.87 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.18–8.60 3.60–9.18 | 3.94 1.94–5.94 1.41–6.47 | 10.33 6.12–14.55 5.01–15.65 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 59.67 52.88–66.46 51.21–68.13 | 41.33 34.55–48.12 32.88–49.79 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 557 489–624 471–642 | 394 327–460 310–478 | 950 817–1084 781–1120 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.80 77.77–85.83 76.48–87.12 | 77.72 73.40–82.05 72.09–83.36 | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 10.23 7.39–13.07 6.63–13.82 | 11.39 8.45–14.34 7.70–15.08 | 21.62 15.84–27.40 14.33–28.90 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.40 1.24–3.56 0.94–3.86 | 1.29 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 3.69 1.44–5.94 0.85–6.53 | 62% 19% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.36–2.45 0.09–2.72 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.56–6.03 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.35 1.79–4.90 1.37–5.33 | 5.80 2.81–8.79 2.00–9.61 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.