Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.282.90safe0.66–2.590.42–2.131.08–4.72safer0.41–2.850.19–2.360.60–5.20
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.199.27safe3.22–6.942.45–5.935.67–12.88safer2.73–7.431.98–6.404.71–13.83
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7611.9426.70safe10.84–18.698.37–15.5019.21–34.19safer9.75–19.787.41–16.4617.16–36.24
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.567.5817.14safe6.62–12.514.90–10.2611.52–22.76safer5.79–13.334.16–11.009.95–24.33
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.602.956.55safe1.72–5.481.30–4.613.01–10.09safer1.17–6.020.81–5.101.98–11.12
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.359.46safe2.90–7.322.35–6.355.24–13.67safer2.32–7.901.81–6.884.14–14.78
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.4052.32safe40.61–54.1945.54–59.11safer38.94–55.8643.87–60.78
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction402429831safe335–470362–495698–965safer317–488345–513662–1001
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction81.2182.52safe77.18–85.2478.20–86.85safer75.89–86.5476.89–88.16
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2812.7825.06safe9.44–15.129.84–15.7319.28–30.85safer8.69–15.889.09–16.4817.78–32.35
Offsides
58%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.363.61safe1.09–3.410.27–2.451.36–5.87safer0.79–3.710.00–2.740.77–6.45
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.943.35safe0.37–2.470.81–3.061.18–5.53safer0.10–2.730.52–3.360.62–6.09
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.686.35safe1.23–4.102.13–5.243.36–9.34safer0.84–4.491.70–5.662.55–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.66–2.59 0.41–2.85 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.22–6.94 2.73–7.43 | 4.19 2.45–5.93 1.98–6.40 | 9.27 5.67–12.88 4.71–13.83 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.76 10.84–18.69 9.75–19.78 | 11.94 8.37–15.50 7.41–16.46 | 26.70 19.21–34.19 17.16–36.24 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.56 6.62–12.51 5.79–13.33 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 17.14 11.52–22.76 9.95–24.33 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.72–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 2.95 1.30–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 6.55 3.01–10.09 1.98–11.12 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.32 2.32–7.90 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.81–6.88 | 9.46 5.24–13.67 4.14–14.78 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 47.40 40.61–54.19 38.94–55.86 | 52.32 45.54–59.11 43.87–60.78 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 402 335–470 317–488 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 831 698–965 662–1001 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.21 77.18–85.24 75.89–86.54 | 82.52 78.20–86.85 76.89–88.16 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.28 9.44–15.12 8.69–15.88 | 12.78 9.84–15.73 9.09–16.48 | 25.06 19.28–30.85 17.78–32.35 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.79–3.71 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.61 1.36–5.87 0.77–6.45 | 58% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 0.37–2.47 0.10–2.73 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 3.35 1.18–5.53 0.62–6.09 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 3.68 2.13–5.24 1.70–5.66 | 6.35 3.36–9.34 2.55–10.15 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+