Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.282.62safe0.37–2.300.43–2.140.80–4.44safer0.11–2.550.20–2.370.32–4.92
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.148.51safe2.50–6.232.40–5.884.90–12.11safer2.01–6.721.93–6.353.94–13.07
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1911.8225.01safe9.27–17.128.26–15.3817.53–32.50safer8.18–18.217.30–16.3415.48–34.55
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.667.8116.48safe5.72–11.615.13–10.5010.85–22.10safer4.89–12.434.40–11.239.29–23.67
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.277.13safe1.98–5.751.62–4.923.60–10.67safer1.44–6.291.12–5.412.56–11.70
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.499.67safe2.97–7.402.49–6.495.46–13.89safer2.40–7.971.96–7.024.35–14.99
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.5647.88safe44.77–58.3541.10–54.67safer43.10–60.0239.42–56.34
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction446415861safe379–513349–482728–995safer361–532331–499692–1031
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction80.5775.94safe76.54–84.6071.61–80.26safer75.25–85.8970.31–81.57
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8910.9923.88safe10.05–15.728.04–13.9318.09–29.66safer9.29–16.487.30–14.6816.59–31.16
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.043.69safe0.49–2.810.95–3.131.43–5.94safer0.19–3.110.66–3.420.85–6.53
Yellow cards
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.603.50safe0.85–2.940.47–2.731.32–5.67safer0.58–3.210.18–3.020.76–6.23
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.175.85safe1.25–4.121.61–4.722.86–8.84safer0.86–4.511.18–5.152.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.72 | 4.14 2.40–5.88 1.93–6.35 | 8.51 4.90–12.11 3.94–13.07 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.19 9.27–17.12 8.18–18.21 | 11.82 8.26–15.38 7.30–16.34 | 25.01 17.53–32.50 15.48–34.55 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.66 5.72–11.61 4.89–12.43 | 7.81 5.13–10.50 4.40–11.23 | 16.48 10.85–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.98–5.75 1.44–6.29 | 3.27 1.62–4.92 1.12–5.41 | 7.13 3.60–10.67 2.56–11.70 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.40 2.40–7.97 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.02 | 9.67 5.46–13.89 4.35–14.99 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.56 44.77–58.35 43.10–60.02 | 47.88 41.10–54.67 39.42–56.34 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 446 379–513 361–532 | 415 349–482 331–499 | 861 728–995 692–1031 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.57 76.54–84.60 75.25–85.89 | 75.94 71.61–80.26 70.31–81.57 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.89 10.05–15.72 9.29–16.48 | 10.99 8.04–13.93 7.30–14.68 | 23.88 18.09–29.66 16.59–31.16 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 2.04 0.95–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.69 1.43–5.94 0.85–6.53 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.85–2.94 0.58–3.21 | 1.60 0.47–2.73 0.18–3.02 | 3.50 1.32–5.67 0.76–6.23 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 5.85 2.86–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.