Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.022.39safe0.40–2.330.16–1.870.56–4.21safer0.15–2.590.00–2.100.08–4.69
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.608.37safe2.91–6.631.86–5.344.76–11.97safer2.42–7.121.39–5.813.81–12.93
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3310.9426.27safe11.41–19.267.38–14.5018.78–33.76safer10.32–20.356.42–15.4616.73–35.81
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.516.9716.48safe6.56–12.454.29–9.6510.86–22.10safer5.74–13.283.56–10.399.29–23.67
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.507.83safe2.44–6.201.85–5.164.29–11.36safer1.90–6.751.36–5.653.25–12.40
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.149.84safe3.49–7.922.14–6.145.63–14.05safer2.92–8.491.60–6.674.52–15.16
Possession %
51%
45%
homeawayprediction50.7449.50safe43.95–57.5342.72–56.29safer42.28–59.2041.04–57.96
Passes
52%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction474466940safe407–541400–532806–1073safer388–559382–550770–1109
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction77.0080.93safe72.97–81.0376.61–85.25safer71.68–82.3275.30–86.56
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2412.4123.65safe8.41–14.089.46–15.3517.87–29.43safer7.65–14.848.71–16.1016.36–30.94
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.873.42safe0.39–2.710.78–2.971.17–5.68safer0.09–3.010.49–3.260.58–6.27
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.953.50safe0.50–2.600.82–3.081.32–5.67safer0.23–2.860.53–3.370.76–6.23
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.145.58safe1.00–3.871.58–4.702.59–8.57safer0.61–4.261.16–5.121.77–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 1.02 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.39 0.56–4.21 0.08–4.69 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.63 2.42–7.12 | 3.60 1.86–5.34 1.39–5.81 | 8.37 4.76–11.97 3.81–12.93 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.33 11.41–19.26 10.32–20.35 | 10.94 7.38–14.50 6.42–15.46 | 26.27 18.78–33.76 16.73–35.81 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.56–12.45 5.74–13.28 | 6.97 4.29–9.65 3.56–10.39 | 16.48 10.86–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.20 1.90–6.75 | 3.50 1.85–5.16 1.36–5.65 | 7.83 4.29–11.36 3.25–12.40 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.49–7.92 2.92–8.49 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.60–6.67 | 9.84 5.63–14.05 4.52–15.16 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 50.74 43.95–57.53 42.28–59.20 | 49.50 42.72–56.29 41.04–57.96 | — | 51% 45% |
| Passes | 474 407–541 388–559 | 466 400–532 382–550 | 940 806–1073 770–1109 | 52% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.00 72.97–81.03 71.68–82.32 | 80.93 76.61–85.25 75.30–86.56 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 11.24 8.41–14.08 7.65–14.84 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.71–16.10 | 23.65 17.87–29.43 16.36–30.94 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 1.87 0.78–2.97 0.49–3.26 | 3.42 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.86 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.50 1.32–5.67 0.76–6.23 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.00–3.87 0.61–4.26 | 3.14 1.58–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.58 2.59–8.57 1.77–9.38 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.