Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.252.82safe0.60–2.540.39–2.101.00–4.64safer0.35–2.790.16–2.330.52–5.12
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.848.68safe2.97–6.702.10–5.585.07–12.28safer2.49–7.191.63–6.054.12–13.24
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7711.4426.21safe10.84–18.697.88–15.0018.72–33.70safer9.75–19.786.92–15.9616.67–35.75
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.167.1016.26safe6.22–12.104.42–9.7810.63–21.88safer5.39–12.933.68–10.519.07–23.45
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.112.656.76safe2.23–5.990.99–4.303.22–10.29safer1.69–6.540.50–4.792.19–11.33
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.249.79safe3.33–7.762.24–6.245.58–14.00safer2.76–8.341.71–6.774.47–15.11
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.2942.84safe50.50–64.0836.06–49.63safer48.83–65.7534.39–51.30
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction513393905safe446–580326–459772–1039safer427–598309–477736–1075
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction87.2882.14safe83.25–91.3077.81–86.46safer81.95–92.6076.50–87.77
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3313.3324.66safe8.49–14.1710.38–16.2718.88–30.44safer7.74–14.939.64–17.0217.37–31.95
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.433.59safe1.00–3.320.34–2.531.34–5.84safer0.70–3.620.05–2.810.75–6.43
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.303.71safe0.36–2.461.17–3.431.53–5.89safer0.10–2.730.88–3.720.97–6.44
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.435.92safe1.06–3.931.87–4.982.93–8.91safer0.67–4.321.45–5.412.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.54 0.35–2.79 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.52–5.12 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.97–6.70 2.49–7.19 | 3.84 2.10–5.58 1.63–6.05 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.77 10.84–18.69 9.75–19.78 | 11.44 7.88–15.00 6.92–15.96 | 26.21 18.72–33.70 16.67–35.75 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.16 6.22–12.10 5.39–12.93 | 7.10 4.42–9.78 3.68–10.51 | 16.26 10.63–21.88 9.07–23.45 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.23–5.99 1.69–6.54 | 2.65 0.99–4.30 0.50–4.79 | 6.76 3.22–10.29 2.19–11.33 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.33–7.76 2.76–8.34 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.71–6.77 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 57.29 50.50–64.08 48.83–65.75 | 42.84 36.06–49.63 34.39–51.30 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 513 446–580 427–598 | 393 326–459 309–477 | 905 772–1039 736–1075 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.28 83.25–91.30 81.95–92.60 | 82.14 77.81–86.46 76.50–87.77 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.49–14.17 7.74–14.93 | 13.33 10.38–16.27 9.64–17.02 | 24.66 18.88–30.44 17.37–31.95 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 2.16 1.00–3.32 0.70–3.62 | 1.43 0.34–2.53 0.05–2.81 | 3.59 1.34–5.84 0.75–6.43 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.36–2.46 0.10–2.73 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.44 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.43 1.87–4.98 1.45–5.41 | 5.92 2.93–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+