Serie A·Regular Season - 37·
Serie A·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.042.78safe0.77–2.700.19–1.900.95–4.60safer0.51–2.950.00–2.120.47–5.08
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.283.759.04safe3.42–7.152.01–5.505.43–12.64safer2.93–7.641.55–5.964.48–13.60
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1410.8126.95safe12.22–20.077.25–14.3719.46–34.44safer11.13–21.166.29–15.3317.41–36.49
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.596.7217.31safe7.65–13.534.04–9.4111.69–22.94safer6.82–14.363.31–10.1410.12–24.50
Blocked shots
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.462.687.13safe2.58–6.341.02–4.333.60–10.67safer2.03–6.880.53–4.822.56–11.71
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.019.70safe3.48–7.902.01–6.015.49–13.92safer2.90–8.481.48–6.554.38–15.02
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.7644.44safe48.97–62.5537.66–51.23safer47.30–64.2235.99–52.90
Passes
76%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction455368824safe388–522302–435690–957safer370–541284–452654–993
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction78.1676.42safe74.13–82.1972.10–80.75safer72.83–83.4870.79–82.05
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7612.9625.71safe9.92–15.5910.01–15.9019.93–31.49safer9.16–16.359.26–16.6518.43–33.00
Offsides
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.392.70safe0.15–2.470.30–2.480.45–4.95safer0.00–2.770.01–2.770.00–5.54
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.953.47safe0.47–2.570.82–3.081.29–5.65safer0.20–2.830.53–3.370.73–6.20
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.606.17safe1.14–4.012.04–5.153.18–9.16safer0.75–4.401.62–5.582.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.04 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.12 | 2.78 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.08 | 54% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.28 3.42–7.15 2.93–7.64 | 3.75 2.01–5.50 1.55–5.96 | 9.04 5.43–12.64 4.48–13.60 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 16.14 12.22–20.07 11.13–21.16 | 10.81 7.25–14.37 6.29–15.33 | 26.95 19.46–34.44 17.41–36.49 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.59 7.65–13.53 6.82–14.36 | 6.72 4.04–9.41 3.31–10.14 | 17.31 11.69–22.94 10.12–24.50 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 2.58–6.34 2.03–6.88 | 2.68 1.02–4.33 0.53–4.82 | 7.13 3.60–10.67 2.56–11.71 | 68% 19% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.90 2.90–8.48 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.55 | 9.70 5.49–13.92 4.38–15.02 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 55.76 48.97–62.55 47.30–64.22 | 44.44 37.66–51.23 35.99–52.90 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 455 388–522 370–541 | 368 302–435 284–452 | 824 690–957 654–993 | 76% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.16 74.13–82.19 72.83–83.48 | 76.42 72.10–80.75 70.79–82.05 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.76 9.92–15.59 9.16–16.35 | 12.96 10.01–15.90 9.26–16.65 | 25.71 19.93–31.49 18.43–33.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 2.70 0.45–4.95 0.00–5.54 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.20–2.83 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.20 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.60 2.04–5.15 1.62–5.58 | 6.17 3.18–9.16 2.37–9.98 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.