Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
21%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.152.093.24safe0.18–2.121.23–2.941.42–5.06safer0.00–2.371.01–3.170.94–5.54
Shots on target
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.125.299.41safe2.26–5.983.55–7.035.80–13.01safer1.77–6.473.08–7.504.85–13.97
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7714.4827.25safe8.85–16.6910.92–18.0519.77–34.74safer7.75–17.799.96–19.0017.72–36.79
Shots in box
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.649.8617.50safe4.70–10.597.18–12.5411.88–23.13safer3.87–11.416.44–13.2810.31–24.69
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.068.11safe2.17–5.932.41–5.724.58–11.65safer1.62–6.471.92–6.213.54–12.68
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.049.65safe2.40–6.823.04–7.045.44–13.87safer1.82–7.402.51–7.584.33–14.97
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.7351.46safe41.94–55.5344.67–58.24safer40.27–57.1943.00–59.91
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction443487930safe376–510421–554796–1064safer357–528403–571761–1099
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction81.1280.86safe77.09–85.1576.54–85.19safer75.80–86.4475.23–86.50
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2612.3822.63safe7.42–13.099.43–15.3216.85–28.41safer6.66–13.858.68–16.0715.35–29.92
Offsides
20%
19%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.302.393.69safe0.14–2.461.30–3.481.44–5.94safer0.00–2.761.01–3.770.85–6.53
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.603.24safe0.59–2.680.47–2.731.06–5.42safer0.32–2.950.18–3.020.50–5.97
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.765.82safe1.62–4.491.21–4.322.82–8.81safer1.23–4.880.78–4.742.01–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 2.09 1.23–2.94 1.01–3.17 | 3.24 1.42–5.06 0.94–5.54 | 20% 21% 59% |
| Shots on target | 4.12 2.26–5.98 1.77–6.47 | 5.29 3.55–7.03 3.08–7.50 | 9.41 5.80–13.01 4.85–13.97 | 29% 59% |
| Total shots | 12.77 8.85–16.69 7.75–17.79 | 14.48 10.92–18.05 9.96–19.00 | 27.25 19.77–34.74 17.72–36.79 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.64 4.70–10.59 3.87–11.41 | 9.86 7.18–12.54 6.44–13.28 | 17.50 11.88–23.13 10.31–24.69 | 26% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.62–6.47 | 4.06 2.41–5.72 1.92–6.21 | 8.11 4.58–11.65 3.54–12.68 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.82 1.82–7.40 | 5.04 3.04–7.04 2.51–7.58 | 9.65 5.44–13.87 4.33–14.97 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 48.73 41.94–55.53 40.27–57.19 | 51.46 44.67–58.24 43.00–59.91 | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 443 376–510 357–528 | 487 421–554 403–571 | 930 796–1064 761–1099 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.12 77.09–85.15 75.80–86.44 | 80.86 76.54–85.19 75.23–86.50 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 10.26 7.42–13.09 6.66–13.85 | 12.38 9.43–15.32 8.68–16.07 | 22.63 16.85–28.41 15.35–29.92 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.76 | 2.39 1.30–3.48 1.01–3.77 | 3.69 1.44–5.94 0.85–6.53 | 20% 19% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.59–2.68 0.32–2.95 | 1.60 0.47–2.73 0.18–3.02 | 3.24 1.06–5.42 0.50–5.97 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 2.76 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 5.82 2.82–8.81 2.01–9.62 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.