Serie A·Regular Season - 38·
Serie A·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.342.69safe0.38–2.320.48–2.190.87–4.51safer0.13–2.570.25–2.420.39–4.99
Shots on target
46%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.564.398.95safe2.70–6.432.65–6.135.35–12.56safer2.21–6.922.18–6.604.39–13.51
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8312.8126.65safe9.91–17.769.25–16.3819.16–34.13safer8.82–18.858.29–17.3417.11–36.18
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.297.6415.93safe5.35–11.244.96–10.3210.31–21.56safer4.52–12.074.22–11.068.74–23.12
Blocked shots
51%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.553.006.55safe1.67–5.431.35–4.653.01–10.08safer1.12–5.970.85–5.141.98–11.12
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.284.459.74safe3.07–7.502.45–6.455.52–13.95safer2.50–8.071.92–6.994.42–15.06
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.6244.04safe48.83–62.4137.26–50.83safer47.16–64.0835.59–52.50
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction501395896safe434–569329–461763–1030safer416–587311–479727–1066
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction85.6377.74safe81.60–89.6673.42–82.07safer80.31–90.9572.11–83.38
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3413.2625.59safe9.50–15.1710.31–16.2019.81–31.38safer8.74–15.939.56–16.9518.31–32.88
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.542.97safe0.27–2.590.44–2.630.72–5.23safer0.00–2.900.16–2.920.13–5.82
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.093.85safe0.70–2.800.97–3.221.67–6.02safer0.44–3.070.67–3.521.11–6.58
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.79
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.035.91safe1.45–4.321.47–4.582.92–8.90safer1.06–4.711.05–5.012.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 4.39 2.65–6.13 2.18–6.60 | 8.95 5.35–12.56 4.39–13.51 | 46% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.83 9.91–17.76 8.82–18.85 | 12.81 9.25–16.38 8.29–17.34 | 26.65 19.16–34.13 17.11–36.18 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.24 4.52–12.07 | 7.64 4.96–10.32 4.22–11.06 | 15.93 10.31–21.56 8.74–23.12 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.67–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 3.00 1.35–4.65 0.85–5.14 | 6.55 3.01–10.08 1.98–11.12 | 51% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.07–7.50 2.50–8.07 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.99 | 9.74 5.52–13.95 4.42–15.06 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 55.62 48.83–62.41 47.16–64.08 | 44.04 37.26–50.83 35.59–52.50 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 501 434–569 416–587 | 395 329–461 311–479 | 896 763–1030 727–1066 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.63 81.60–89.66 80.31–90.95 | 77.74 73.42–82.07 72.11–83.38 | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 12.34 9.50–15.17 8.74–15.93 | 13.26 10.31–16.20 9.56–16.95 | 25.59 19.81–31.38 18.31–32.88 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.90 | 1.54 0.44–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 2.97 0.72–5.23 0.13–5.82 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.09 0.97–3.22 0.67–3.52 | 3.85 1.67–6.02 1.11–6.58 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.03 1.47–4.58 1.05–5.01 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.