Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.502.88safe0.41–2.350.64–2.351.06–4.70safer0.16–2.600.41–2.580.58–5.18
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.508.94safe2.58–6.302.75–6.245.33–12.54safer2.09–6.792.29–6.704.38–13.50
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3112.1525.46safe9.39–17.248.59–15.7117.97–32.95safer8.29–18.337.63–16.6715.92–35.00
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.587.6716.25safe5.64–11.524.99–10.3510.63–21.87safer4.81–12.354.25–11.099.06–23.44
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.756.06safe1.43–5.191.10–4.412.53–9.60safer0.88–5.730.61–4.901.49–10.63
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.139.43safe3.09–7.522.13–6.135.22–13.65safer2.52–8.091.60–6.664.11–14.75
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.5852.29safe40.79–54.3845.51–59.08safer39.12–56.0443.84–60.75
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction402449851safe335–469383–515717–985safer317–487365–533682–1020
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction80.3983.47safe76.36–84.4279.15–87.80safer75.07–85.7177.84–89.10
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1711.6623.83safe9.33–15.008.72–14.6018.04–29.61safer8.57–15.767.97–15.3516.54–31.11
Offsides
20%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.984.71safe0.57–2.891.89–4.072.45–6.96safer0.27–3.191.60–4.361.86–7.55
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.793.41safe0.58–2.670.66–2.911.23–5.59safer0.31–2.940.36–3.210.67–6.15
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.035.83safe1.36–4.231.48–4.592.84–8.82safer0.97–4.621.05–5.012.02–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.50 2.75–6.24 2.29–6.70 | 8.94 5.33–12.54 4.38–13.50 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.31 9.39–17.24 8.29–18.33 | 12.15 8.59–15.71 7.63–16.67 | 25.46 17.97–32.95 15.92–35.00 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.58 5.64–11.52 4.81–12.35 | 7.67 4.99–10.35 4.25–11.09 | 16.25 10.63–21.87 9.06–23.44 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 2.75 1.10–4.41 0.61–4.90 | 6.06 2.53–9.60 1.49–10.63 | 51% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.52 2.52–8.09 | 4.13 2.13–6.13 1.60–6.66 | 9.43 5.22–13.65 4.11–14.75 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 47.58 40.79–54.38 39.12–56.04 | 52.29 45.51–59.08 43.84–60.75 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 402 335–469 317–487 | 449 383–515 365–533 | 851 717–985 682–1020 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.39 76.36–84.42 75.07–85.71 | 83.47 79.15–87.80 77.84–89.10 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.33–15.00 8.57–15.76 | 11.66 8.72–14.60 7.97–15.35 | 23.83 18.04–29.61 16.54–31.11 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 2.98 1.89–4.07 1.60–4.36 | 4.71 2.45–6.96 1.86–7.55 | 20% 16% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.58–2.67 0.31–2.94 | 1.79 0.66–2.91 0.36–3.21 | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.67–6.15 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 3.03 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.02–9.63 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.