Eredivisie·Regular Season - 16·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.222.76safe0.58–2.520.36–2.070.94–4.59safer0.33–2.770.13–2.300.46–5.07
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.349.53safe3.33–7.062.60–6.085.93–13.14safer2.84–7.552.13–6.554.97–14.10
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4713.3728.83safe11.54–19.399.80–16.9321.35–36.32safer10.45–20.488.85–17.8919.30–38.37
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.338.1418.47safe7.39–13.285.46–10.8212.85–24.10safer6.56–14.104.72–11.5611.28–25.66
Blocked shots
44%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.023.927.94safe2.14–5.902.26–5.574.40–11.47safer1.60–6.451.77–6.063.37–12.51
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.605.1010.71safe3.39–7.823.10–7.106.49–14.92safer2.82–8.392.57–7.645.39–16.03
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction49.9650.79safe43.17–56.7544.00–57.57safer41.50–58.4242.33–59.24
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction438437874safe370–505370–503741–1008safer352–523353–521705–1044
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction66.6270.10safe62.59–70.6465.77–74.42safer61.29–71.9464.47–75.73
Fouls
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2510.9424.19safe10.41–16.088.00–13.8918.41–29.97safer9.65–16.847.25–14.6416.90–31.48
Offsides
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.182.87safe0.54–2.860.08–2.270.62–5.13safer0.24–3.160.00–2.560.03–5.72
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.783.46safe0.63–2.730.65–2.911.29–5.64safer0.37–3.000.36–3.200.73–6.20
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.646.59safe1.52–4.392.08–5.203.60–9.59safer1.13–4.781.66–5.622.79–10.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.76 0.94–4.59 0.46–5.07 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.20 3.33–7.06 2.84–7.55 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 9.53 5.93–13.14 4.97–14.10 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.47 11.54–19.39 10.45–20.48 | 13.37 9.80–16.93 8.85–17.89 | 28.83 21.35–36.32 19.30–38.37 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 10.33 7.39–13.28 6.56–14.10 | 8.14 5.46–10.82 4.72–11.56 | 18.47 12.85–24.10 11.28–25.66 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.14–5.90 1.60–6.45 | 3.92 2.26–5.57 1.77–6.06 | 7.94 4.40–11.47 3.37–12.51 | 44% 14% 41% |
| Corners | 5.60 3.39–7.82 2.82–8.39 | 5.10 3.10–7.10 2.57–7.64 | 10.71 6.49–14.92 5.39–16.03 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 49.96 43.17–56.75 41.50–58.42 | 50.79 44.00–57.57 42.33–59.24 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 438 370–505 352–523 | 437 370–503 353–521 | 874 741–1008 705–1044 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.62 62.59–70.64 61.29–71.94 | 70.10 65.77–74.42 64.47–75.73 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 13.25 10.41–16.08 9.65–16.84 | 10.94 8.00–13.89 7.25–14.64 | 24.19 18.41–29.97 16.90–31.48 | 64% 28% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 1.18 0.08–2.27 0.00–2.56 | 2.87 0.62–5.13 0.03–5.72 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.37–3.00 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.46 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.20 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 3.64 2.08–5.20 1.66–5.62 | 6.59 3.60–9.59 2.79–10.40 | 32% 15% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.