Predicted match statistics
Goals
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.840.823.66safe1.87–3.800.00–1.681.84–5.48safer1.62–4.060.00–1.911.36–5.96
Shots on target
92%
homeawaytotalprediction7.872.8710.74safe6.01–9.731.13–4.617.13–14.34safer5.52–10.220.66–5.086.18–15.30
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction20.878.5829.46safe16.95–24.805.02–12.1521.97–36.95safer15.86–25.894.06–13.1119.92–39.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction14.925.3820.30safe11.98–17.862.70–8.0614.67–25.92safer11.15–18.691.96–8.8013.11–27.49
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction5.642.287.92safe3.75–7.520.63–3.944.38–11.46safer3.21–8.060.14–4.433.35–12.49
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.642.8210.46safe5.43–9.850.82–4.826.25–14.67safer4.85–10.430.29–5.355.14–15.78
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction64.4435.18safe57.65–71.2328.40–41.97safer55.98–72.9026.73–43.64
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction607336944safe540–675270–403810–1077safer522–693252–420774–1113
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction78.5469.24safe74.51–82.5764.92–73.57safer73.22–83.8663.61–74.88
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2111.7123.92safe9.37–15.058.77–14.6618.14–29.71safer8.62–15.818.02–15.4016.64–31.21
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.793.37safe0.41–2.730.70–2.891.11–5.62safer0.11–3.030.41–3.170.52–6.21
Yellow cards
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.933.21safe0.23–2.330.80–3.061.03–5.38safer0.00–2.590.51–3.350.47–5.94
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
80%
homeawaytotalprediction2.134.796.92safe0.70–3.573.23–6.353.93–9.91safer0.31–3.952.81–6.773.12–10.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.84 1.87–3.80 1.62–4.06 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.91 | 3.66 1.84–5.48 1.36–5.96 | 79% 13% |
| Shots on target | 7.87 6.01–9.73 5.52–10.22 | 2.87 1.13–4.61 0.66–5.08 | 10.74 7.13–14.34 6.18–15.30 | 92% |
| Total shots | 20.87 16.95–24.80 15.86–25.89 | 8.58 5.02–12.15 4.06–13.11 | 29.46 21.97–36.95 19.92–39.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 14.92 11.98–17.86 11.15–18.69 | 5.38 2.70–8.06 1.96–8.80 | 20.30 14.67–25.92 13.11–27.49 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 5.64 3.75–7.52 3.21–8.06 | 2.28 0.63–3.94 0.14–4.43 | 7.92 4.38–11.46 3.35–12.49 | 85% |
| Corners | 7.64 5.43–9.85 4.85–10.43 | 2.82 0.82–4.82 0.29–5.35 | 10.46 6.25–14.67 5.14–15.78 | 91% |
| Possession % | 64.44 57.65–71.23 55.98–72.90 | 35.18 28.40–41.97 26.73–43.64 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 607 540–675 522–693 | 336 270–403 252–420 | 944 810–1077 774–1113 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.54 74.51–82.57 73.22–83.86 | 69.24 64.92–73.57 63.61–74.88 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.21 9.37–15.05 8.62–15.81 | 11.71 8.77–14.66 8.02–15.40 | 23.92 18.14–29.71 16.64–31.21 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.17 | 3.37 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.28 0.23–2.33 0.00–2.59 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.21 1.03–5.38 0.47–5.94 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.13 0.70–3.57 0.31–3.95 | 4.79 3.23–6.35 2.81–6.77 | 6.92 3.93–9.91 3.12–10.72 | 80% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.