Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.282.60safe0.35–2.290.43–2.140.78–4.42safer0.10–2.540.20–2.370.30–4.90
Shots on target
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.609.68safe3.21–6.942.86–6.356.08–13.29safer2.72–7.432.40–6.815.12–14.24
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0212.9426.97safe10.10–17.959.38–16.5119.48–34.45safer9.01–19.048.42–17.4617.43–36.51
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.848.5517.38safe5.90–11.785.86–11.2311.76–23.01safer5.07–12.615.13–11.9610.19–24.57
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.086.95safe1.98–5.751.43–4.733.41–10.48safer1.44–6.290.93–5.222.37–11.52
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.939.67safe2.52–6.952.93–6.935.45–13.88safer1.95–7.522.40–7.464.35–14.99
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction50.0350.05safe43.24–56.8243.27–56.84safer41.57–58.4941.60–58.51
Passes
50%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction417416832safe349–484349–482699–966safer331–502332–500663–1002
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction66.7269.03safe62.69–70.7564.71–73.36safer61.40–72.0563.40–74.67
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9914.7726.76safe9.16–14.8311.82–17.7120.98–32.54safer8.40–15.5911.07–18.4619.47–34.05
Offsides
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.382.92safe0.38–2.700.29–2.480.67–5.17safer0.07–3.000.00–2.770.08–5.76
Yellow cards
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.433.94safe0.46–2.561.30–3.561.77–6.12safer0.19–2.831.01–3.851.21–6.68
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.516.40safe1.46–4.331.95–5.063.41–9.40safer1.07–4.721.53–5.492.60–10.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.21–6.94 2.72–7.43 | 4.60 2.86–6.35 2.40–6.81 | 9.68 6.08–13.29 5.12–14.24 | 50% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.02 10.10–17.95 9.01–19.04 | 12.94 9.38–16.51 8.42–17.46 | 26.97 19.48–34.45 17.43–36.51 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.90–11.78 5.07–12.61 | 8.55 5.86–11.23 5.13–11.96 | 17.38 11.76–23.01 10.19–24.57 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.98–5.75 1.44–6.29 | 3.08 1.43–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 6.95 3.41–10.48 2.37–11.52 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 4.74 2.52–6.95 1.95–7.52 | 4.93 2.93–6.93 2.40–7.46 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 50.03 43.24–56.82 41.57–58.49 | 50.05 43.27–56.84 41.60–58.51 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 417 349–484 331–502 | 416 349–482 332–500 | 832 699–966 663–1002 | 50% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.72 62.69–70.75 61.40–72.05 | 69.03 64.71–73.36 63.40–74.67 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.16–14.83 8.40–15.59 | 14.77 11.82–17.71 11.07–18.46 | 26.76 20.98–32.54 19.47–34.05 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.07–3.00 | 1.38 0.29–2.48 0.00–2.77 | 2.92 0.67–5.17 0.08–5.76 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.19–2.83 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 3.94 1.77–6.12 1.21–6.68 | 23% 19% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.46–4.33 1.07–4.72 | 3.51 1.95–5.06 1.53–5.49 | 6.40 3.41–9.40 2.60–10.21 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.