Eredivisie·Regular Season - 33·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.273.13safe0.89–2.830.42–2.131.31–4.95safer0.64–3.080.19–2.350.83–5.43
Shots on target
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.634.209.83safe3.77–7.492.46–5.946.23–13.44safer3.28–7.981.99–6.415.27–14.39
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7612.2828.04safe11.83–19.688.72–15.8520.55–35.53safer10.74–20.777.76–16.8118.50–37.58
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.758.2218.97safe7.81–13.705.54–10.9013.35–24.59safer6.98–14.534.80–11.6411.78–26.16
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.963.307.26safe2.07–5.841.65–4.963.72–10.80safer1.53–6.381.16–5.452.69–11.83
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.944.5910.54safe3.73–8.162.59–6.596.32–14.75safer3.16–8.732.06–7.135.21–15.86
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.4847.92safe44.69–58.2741.14–54.71safer43.02–59.9439.47–56.38
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction465420885safe398–532354–487752–1019safer380–551336–504716–1055
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction70.5669.75safe66.53–74.5965.43–74.07safer65.24–75.8964.12–75.38
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1411.9622.10safe7.30–12.989.01–14.9016.32–27.88safer6.55–13.738.27–15.6514.81–29.39
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.723.37safe0.49–2.810.62–2.811.12–5.63safer0.19–3.120.34–3.100.53–6.21
Yellow cards
27%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.712.93safe0.16–2.260.58–2.840.75–5.10safer0.00–2.530.29–3.130.19–5.66
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.756.63safe1.44–4.312.20–5.313.63–9.62safer1.05–4.701.77–5.732.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.86 0.89–2.83 0.64–3.08 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.35 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 51% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.63 3.77–7.49 3.28–7.98 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 9.83 6.23–13.44 5.27–14.39 | 62% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.76 11.83–19.68 10.74–20.77 | 12.28 8.72–15.85 7.76–16.81 | 28.04 20.55–35.53 18.50–37.58 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 10.75 7.81–13.70 6.98–14.53 | 8.22 5.54–10.90 4.80–11.64 | 18.97 13.35–24.59 11.78–26.16 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.07–5.84 1.53–6.38 | 3.30 1.65–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.26 3.72–10.80 2.69–11.83 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.73–8.16 3.16–8.73 | 4.59 2.59–6.59 2.06–7.13 | 10.54 6.32–14.75 5.21–15.86 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.48 44.69–58.27 43.02–59.94 | 47.92 41.14–54.71 39.47–56.38 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 380–551 | 420 354–487 336–504 | 885 752–1019 716–1055 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.56 66.53–74.59 65.24–75.89 | 69.75 65.43–74.07 64.12–75.38 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.14 7.30–12.98 6.55–13.73 | 11.96 9.01–14.90 8.27–15.65 | 22.10 16.32–27.88 14.81–29.39 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.12 | 1.72 0.62–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.37 1.12–5.63 0.53–6.21 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.21 0.16–2.26 0.00–2.53 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 2.93 0.75–5.10 0.19–5.66 | 27% 24% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 3.75 2.20–5.31 1.77–5.73 | 6.63 3.63–9.62 2.82–10.43 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.