Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.623.31safe0.73–2.660.76–2.471.49–5.14safer0.48–2.910.54–2.701.01–5.62
Shots on target
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.619.70safe3.22–6.952.87–6.366.09–13.30safer2.73–7.442.41–6.825.14–14.26
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9112.8627.77safe10.98–18.839.30–16.4220.28–35.25safer9.89–19.928.34–17.3818.23–37.30
Shots in box
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.878.4418.31safe6.93–12.815.76–11.1212.69–23.94safer6.10–13.645.03–11.8611.12–25.50
Blocked shots
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.547.76safe2.34–6.101.89–5.194.22–11.29safer1.79–6.641.39–5.683.19–12.33
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.3910.09safe3.49–7.912.39–6.395.87–14.30safer2.91–8.491.85–6.924.77–15.41
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.7549.35safe44.96–58.5442.56–56.13safer43.29–60.2140.89–57.80
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction486457943safe419–553390–523809–1077safer401–572373–541774–1112
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction71.3572.43safe67.32–75.3868.11–76.76safer66.03–76.6766.80–78.07
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1410.2520.39safe7.31–12.987.30–13.1914.61–26.17safer6.55–13.746.55–13.9413.10–27.67
Offsides
32%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.013.68safe0.50–2.820.92–3.111.42–5.93safer0.20–3.120.63–3.400.83–6.52
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.773.37safe0.54–2.640.64–2.901.19–5.54safer0.28–2.910.35–3.190.63–6.10
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.256.22safe1.54–4.411.69–4.803.23–9.22safer1.15–4.801.27–5.232.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.66 0.48–2.91 | 1.62 0.76–2.47 0.54–2.70 | 3.31 1.49–5.14 1.01–5.62 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.22–6.95 2.73–7.44 | 4.61 2.87–6.36 2.41–6.82 | 9.70 6.09–13.30 5.14–14.26 | 49% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.91 10.98–18.83 9.89–19.92 | 12.86 9.30–16.42 8.34–17.38 | 27.77 20.28–35.25 18.23–37.30 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.87 6.93–12.81 6.10–13.64 | 8.44 5.76–11.12 5.03–11.86 | 18.31 12.69–23.94 11.12–25.50 | 59% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.34–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 3.54 1.89–5.19 1.39–5.68 | 7.76 4.22–11.29 3.19–12.33 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.49–7.91 2.91–8.49 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.85–6.92 | 10.09 5.87–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.75 44.96–58.54 43.29–60.21 | 49.35 42.56–56.13 40.89–57.80 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 486 419–553 401–572 | 457 390–523 373–541 | 943 809–1077 774–1112 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.35 67.32–75.38 66.03–76.67 | 72.43 68.11–76.76 66.80–78.07 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 10.14 7.31–12.98 6.55–13.74 | 10.25 7.30–13.19 6.55–13.94 | 20.39 14.61–26.17 13.10–27.67 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 2.01 0.92–3.11 0.63–3.40 | 3.68 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 32% 21% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.37 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.10 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 3.25 1.69–4.80 1.27–5.23 | 6.22 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.