Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.352.67safe0.35–2.280.50–2.210.84–4.49safer0.09–2.530.27–2.440.36–4.97
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.528.79safe2.41–6.142.77–6.265.18–12.39safer1.92–6.632.31–6.724.23–13.35
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6712.8925.56safe8.74–16.599.33–16.4518.07–33.04safer7.65–17.688.37–17.4116.02–35.09
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.929.0316.95safe4.98–10.876.35–11.7111.33–22.57safer4.15–11.705.61–12.449.76–24.14
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.817.20safe1.50–5.272.16–5.473.66–10.73safer0.96–5.811.67–5.962.63–11.77
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.505.099.60safe2.29–6.723.09–7.095.38–13.81safer1.72–7.292.56–7.634.28–14.92
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction50.3551.56safe43.56–57.1444.78–58.35safer41.89–58.8143.11–60.02
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction467484951safe399–534418–551817–1085safer381–552400–568782–1120
Pass accuracy %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction69.4575.87safe65.42–73.4871.54–80.19safer64.13–74.7770.23–81.50
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7913.1924.98safe8.96–14.6310.24–16.1319.20–30.76safer8.20–15.399.49–16.8817.69–32.27
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.003.94safe0.78–3.100.90–3.091.68–6.19safer0.48–3.400.62–3.381.10–6.78
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.194.07safe0.83–2.931.06–3.321.89–6.25safer0.56–3.190.77–3.611.34–6.81
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.995.94safe1.51–4.381.44–4.552.94–8.93safer1.12–4.771.01–4.972.13–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.35 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.14 1.92–6.63 | 4.52 2.77–6.26 2.31–6.72 | 8.79 5.18–12.39 4.23–13.35 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.67 8.74–16.59 7.65–17.68 | 12.89 9.33–16.45 8.37–17.41 | 25.56 18.07–33.04 16.02–35.09 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.92 4.98–10.87 4.15–11.70 | 9.03 6.35–11.71 5.61–12.44 | 16.95 11.33–22.57 9.76–24.14 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 3.81 2.16–5.47 1.67–5.96 | 7.20 3.66–10.73 2.63–11.77 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.50 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 5.09 3.09–7.09 2.56–7.63 | 9.60 5.38–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 50.35 43.56–57.14 41.89–58.81 | 51.56 44.78–58.35 43.11–60.02 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 467 399–534 381–552 | 484 418–551 400–568 | 951 817–1085 782–1120 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.45 65.42–73.48 64.13–74.77 | 75.87 71.54–80.19 70.23–81.50 | — | 19% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.96–14.63 8.20–15.39 | 13.19 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.88 | 24.98 19.20–30.76 17.69–32.27 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 2.00 0.90–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.94 1.68–6.19 1.10–6.78 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.56–3.19 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.07 1.89–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 2.99 1.44–4.55 1.01–4.97 | 5.94 2.94–8.93 2.13–9.74 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.