Ligue 1·Regular Season - 11·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.302.69safe0.42–2.350.45–2.160.87–4.51safer0.17–2.600.22–2.390.39–4.99
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.504.729.22safe2.64–6.372.97–6.465.62–12.83safer2.15–6.862.51–6.924.66–13.78
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7712.4126.18safe9.84–17.698.85–15.9818.70–33.67safer8.75–18.787.89–16.9416.64–35.72
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.898.5817.46safe5.95–11.835.89–11.2611.84–23.09safer5.12–12.665.16–11.9910.27–24.65
Blocked shots
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.472.996.46safe1.58–5.351.34–4.642.92–9.99safer1.04–5.890.85–5.141.89–11.03
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.6210.09safe3.25–7.682.62–6.625.88–14.30safer2.68–8.252.09–7.164.77–15.41
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3642.14safe50.57–64.1535.36–48.93safer48.90–65.8233.69–50.60
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction530382912safe463–597316–448778–1046safer445–615298–466743–1081
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction71.7969.30safe67.76–75.8264.98–73.63safer66.47–77.1163.67–74.94
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7613.9626.72safe9.92–15.6011.01–16.9020.94–32.50safer9.17–16.3510.27–17.6519.43–34.01
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.913.67safe0.59–2.910.82–3.001.41–5.92safer0.29–3.220.53–3.290.82–6.51
Yellow cards
32%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.374.29safe0.86–2.961.24–3.502.11–6.46safer0.60–3.230.95–3.791.55–7.02
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.176.20safe1.60–4.471.61–4.723.21–9.19safer1.21–4.861.19–5.152.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.17–2.60 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.22–2.39 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.37 2.15–6.86 | 4.72 2.97–6.46 2.51–6.92 | 9.22 5.62–12.83 4.66–13.78 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.77 9.84–17.69 8.75–18.78 | 12.41 8.85–15.98 7.89–16.94 | 26.18 18.70–33.67 16.64–35.72 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.95–11.83 5.12–12.66 | 8.58 5.89–11.26 5.16–11.99 | 17.46 11.84–23.09 10.27–24.65 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 1.58–5.35 1.04–5.89 | 2.99 1.34–4.64 0.85–5.14 | 6.46 2.92–9.99 1.89–11.03 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.25–7.68 2.68–8.25 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.16 | 10.09 5.88–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 57.36 50.57–64.15 48.90–65.82 | 42.14 35.36–48.93 33.69–50.60 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 530 463–597 445–615 | 382 316–448 298–466 | 912 778–1046 743–1081 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.79 67.76–75.82 66.47–77.11 | 69.30 64.98–73.63 63.67–74.94 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.76 9.92–15.60 9.17–16.35 | 13.96 11.01–16.90 10.27–17.65 | 26.72 20.94–32.50 19.43–34.01 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.22 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.67 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 32% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.03 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.19–5.15 | 6.20 3.21–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.