Ligue 1·Regular Season - 12·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.372.79safe0.45–2.390.51–2.220.96–4.61safer0.20–2.640.28–2.450.48–5.09
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.834.309.13safe2.96–6.692.56–6.045.52–12.73safer2.47–7.182.09–6.514.57–13.69
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9612.7626.72safe10.03–17.889.20–16.3219.23–34.20safer8.94–18.978.24–17.2817.18–36.26
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.268.5617.82safe6.31–12.205.88–11.2412.19–23.44safer5.48–13.035.14–11.9810.63–25.01
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.617.60safe2.11–5.871.96–5.264.07–11.14safer1.57–6.421.47–5.763.03–12.17
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.7710.31safe3.33–7.762.77–6.776.10–14.52safer2.75–8.332.23–7.304.99–15.63
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.6354.61safe38.84–52.4247.83–61.40safer37.17–54.0946.15–63.07
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction408479888safe341–476413–546754–1021safer323–494395–563718–1057
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction66.5473.86safe62.51–70.5669.54–78.18safer61.21–71.8668.23–79.49
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2213.5626.78safe10.38–16.0610.62–16.5121.00–32.56safer9.62–16.819.87–17.2519.49–34.07
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.833.72safe0.72–3.040.74–2.921.46–5.97safer0.42–3.350.45–3.210.87–6.56
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.114.04safe0.88–2.980.98–3.241.86–6.22safer0.61–3.240.69–3.531.30–6.77
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
37%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.186.08safe1.46–4.341.63–4.743.09–9.08safer1.08–4.721.20–5.162.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.37 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.96–6.69 2.47–7.18 | 4.30 2.56–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 9.13 5.52–12.73 4.57–13.69 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.96 10.03–17.88 8.94–18.97 | 12.76 9.20–16.32 8.24–17.28 | 26.72 19.23–34.20 17.18–36.26 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.26 6.31–12.20 5.48–13.03 | 8.56 5.88–11.24 5.14–11.98 | 17.82 12.19–23.44 10.63–25.01 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.57–6.42 | 3.61 1.96–5.26 1.47–5.76 | 7.60 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.17 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.33–7.76 2.75–8.33 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.23–7.30 | 10.31 6.10–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.63 38.84–52.42 37.17–54.09 | 54.61 47.83–61.40 46.15–63.07 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 408 341–476 323–494 | 479 413–546 395–563 | 888 754–1021 718–1057 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.54 62.51–70.56 61.21–71.86 | 73.86 69.54–78.18 68.23–79.49 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 13.22 10.38–16.06 9.62–16.81 | 13.56 10.62–16.51 9.87–17.25 | 26.78 21.00–32.56 19.49–34.07 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.35 | 1.83 0.74–2.92 0.45–3.21 | 3.72 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.24 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.04 1.86–6.22 1.30–6.77 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.46–4.34 1.08–4.72 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.08 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 37% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.