Ligue 1·Regular Season - 13·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.192.92safe0.77–2.700.34–2.041.10–4.75safer0.51–2.950.11–2.270.62–5.23
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.279.90safe3.77–7.502.52–6.016.30–13.51safer3.28–7.992.06–6.485.34–14.46
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6511.4528.09safe12.72–20.577.88–15.0120.60–35.58safer11.63–21.666.92–15.9718.55–37.63
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction11.177.7518.92safe8.23–14.115.07–10.4313.30–24.54safer7.40–14.944.33–11.1711.73–26.11
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.812.757.56safe2.93–6.691.09–4.404.02–11.09safer2.38–7.230.60–4.892.98–12.13
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.264.2010.46safe4.05–8.472.20–6.206.25–14.68safer3.47–9.051.67–6.745.14–15.78
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction60.2740.48safe53.48–67.0633.70–47.26safer51.81–68.7332.02–48.94
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction537354892safe470–605288–421758–1025safer452–623270–438722–1061
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction72.9166.15safe68.88–76.9461.83–70.48safer67.59–78.2360.52–71.79
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2013.7325.93safe9.36–15.0410.78–16.6720.15–31.71safer8.61–15.7910.04–17.4218.64–33.22
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.623.52safe0.74–3.060.53–2.721.27–5.77safer0.44–3.360.24–3.010.68–6.36
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.434.02safe0.54–2.641.30–3.561.84–6.20safer0.28–2.911.01–3.851.29–6.76
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.676.33safe1.22–4.092.12–5.233.33–9.32safer0.83–4.481.69–5.652.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.19 0.34–2.04 0.11–2.27 | 2.92 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.64 3.77–7.50 3.28–7.99 | 4.27 2.52–6.01 2.06–6.48 | 9.90 6.30–13.51 5.34–14.46 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 16.65 12.72–20.57 11.63–21.66 | 11.45 7.88–15.01 6.92–15.97 | 28.09 20.60–35.58 18.55–37.63 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 11.17 8.23–14.11 7.40–14.94 | 7.75 5.07–10.43 4.33–11.17 | 18.92 13.30–24.54 11.73–26.11 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.81 2.93–6.69 2.38–7.23 | 2.75 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 7.56 4.02–11.09 2.98–12.13 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.26 4.05–8.47 3.47–9.05 | 4.20 2.20–6.20 1.67–6.74 | 10.46 6.25–14.68 5.14–15.78 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 60.27 53.48–67.06 51.81–68.73 | 40.48 33.70–47.26 32.02–48.94 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 537 470–605 452–623 | 354 288–421 270–438 | 892 758–1025 722–1061 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.91 68.88–76.94 67.59–78.23 | 66.15 61.83–70.48 60.52–71.79 | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 12.20 9.36–15.04 8.61–15.79 | 13.73 10.78–16.67 10.04–17.42 | 25.93 20.15–31.71 18.64–33.22 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.01 | 3.52 1.27–5.77 0.68–6.36 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 4.02 1.84–6.20 1.29–6.76 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.67 2.12–5.23 1.69–5.65 | 6.33 3.33–9.32 2.52–10.13 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+