Ligue 1·Regular Season - 14·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.503.00safe0.53–2.470.64–2.351.17–4.82safer0.28–2.720.41–2.580.69–5.30
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.584.569.14safe2.72–6.442.82–6.305.53–12.74safer2.23–6.932.35–6.774.58–13.70
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9913.4027.39safe10.07–17.929.84–16.9719.91–34.88safer8.97–19.018.88–17.9217.85–36.93
Shots in box
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.879.1418.01safe5.93–11.816.46–11.8212.38–23.63safer5.10–12.645.72–12.5610.82–25.20
Blocked shots
48%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.828.04safe2.34–6.102.17–5.484.51–11.58safer1.79–6.641.68–5.973.47–12.61
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.724.9810.69safe3.50–7.932.98–6.986.48–14.91safer2.93–8.512.44–7.515.37–16.01
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction48.0252.83safe41.23–54.8146.05–59.62safer39.56–56.4844.38–61.29
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction434473907safe366–501407–540773–1040safer348–519389–557737–1076
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction67.9673.88safe63.93–71.9969.56–78.21safer62.64–73.2868.25–79.52
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8713.1124.98safe9.03–14.7010.17–16.0619.20–30.76safer8.27–15.469.42–16.8117.69–32.27
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.773.53safe0.60–2.920.67–2.861.27–5.78safer0.30–3.220.39–3.150.69–6.37
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.134.05safe0.87–2.971.00–3.261.87–6.23safer0.61–3.240.71–3.551.31–6.78
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.026.04safe1.59–4.461.46–4.573.05–9.03safer1.20–4.851.04–5.002.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 3.00 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.72–6.44 2.23–6.93 | 4.56 2.82–6.30 2.35–6.77 | 9.14 5.53–12.74 4.58–13.70 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.99 10.07–17.92 8.97–19.01 | 13.40 9.84–16.97 8.88–17.92 | 27.39 19.91–34.88 17.85–36.93 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.87 5.93–11.81 5.10–12.64 | 9.14 6.46–11.82 5.72–12.56 | 18.01 12.38–23.63 10.82–25.20 | 43% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.34–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 3.82 2.17–5.48 1.68–5.97 | 8.04 4.51–11.58 3.47–12.61 | 48% 14% 37% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.50–7.93 2.93–8.51 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.44–7.51 | 10.69 6.48–14.91 5.37–16.01 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.02 41.23–54.81 39.56–56.48 | 52.83 46.05–59.62 44.38–61.29 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 434 366–501 348–519 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 907 773–1040 737–1076 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.96 63.93–71.99 62.64–73.28 | 73.88 69.56–78.21 68.25–79.52 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 11.87 9.03–14.70 8.27–15.46 | 13.11 10.17–16.06 9.42–16.81 | 24.98 19.20–30.76 17.69–32.27 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.77 0.67–2.86 0.39–3.15 | 3.53 1.27–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.78 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.24–9.85 | 42% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.