Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.362.74safe0.41–2.350.50–2.210.92–4.56safer0.16–2.600.28–2.440.44–5.04
Shots on target
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.729.36safe2.78–6.502.98–6.465.76–12.97safer2.29–6.992.51–6.934.80–13.92
Total shots
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1513.3626.51safe9.23–17.089.79–16.9219.02–34.00safer8.14–18.178.83–17.8816.97–36.05
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.488.6317.11safe5.53–11.425.95–11.3111.48–22.73safer4.71–12.255.21–12.059.92–24.30
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.626.67safe1.17–4.941.97–5.273.14–10.21safer0.63–5.481.47–5.762.10–11.24
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.9110.12safe3.00–7.422.91–6.915.91–14.33safer2.42–8.002.38–7.444.80–15.44
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.7148.45safe44.92–58.5041.67–55.24safer43.25–60.1739.99–56.91
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction529463992safe462–597396–529859–1126safer444–615379–547823–1162
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction72.8073.53safe68.77–76.8269.20–77.85safer67.47–78.1267.89–79.16
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9910.7521.74safe8.15–13.837.81–13.7015.96–27.53safer7.40–14.587.06–14.4514.46–29.03
Offsides
50%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.473.45safe0.82–3.140.38–2.561.20–5.71safer0.52–3.440.09–2.850.61–6.30
Yellow cards
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.743.42safe0.63–2.730.61–2.871.24–5.59safer0.36–3.000.32–3.160.68–6.15
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.333.036.36safe1.90–4.771.47–4.583.37–9.35safer1.51–5.161.05–5.012.56–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.28–2.44 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 38% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.50 2.29–6.99 | 4.72 2.98–6.46 2.51–6.93 | 9.36 5.76–12.97 4.80–13.92 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.15 9.23–17.08 8.14–18.17 | 13.36 9.79–16.92 8.83–17.88 | 26.51 19.02–34.00 16.97–36.05 | 45% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.53–11.42 4.71–12.25 | 8.63 5.95–11.31 5.21–12.05 | 17.11 11.48–22.73 9.92–24.30 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.94 0.63–5.48 | 3.62 1.97–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 6.67 3.14–10.21 2.10–11.24 | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 5.21 3.00–7.42 2.42–8.00 | 4.91 2.91–6.91 2.38–7.44 | 10.12 5.91–14.33 4.80–15.44 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 51.71 44.92–58.50 43.25–60.17 | 48.45 41.67–55.24 39.99–56.91 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 529 462–597 444–615 | 463 396–529 379–547 | 992 859–1126 823–1162 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.80 68.77–76.82 67.47–78.12 | 73.53 69.20–77.85 67.89–79.16 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 10.99 8.15–13.83 7.40–14.58 | 10.75 7.81–13.70 7.06–14.45 | 21.74 15.96–27.53 14.46–29.03 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.45 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 50% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.36–3.00 | 1.74 0.61–2.87 0.32–3.16 | 3.42 1.24–5.59 0.68–6.15 | 38% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.33 1.90–4.77 1.51–5.16 | 3.03 1.47–4.58 1.05–5.01 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.56–10.16 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.