Ligue 1·Regular Season - 15·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.222.98safe0.80–2.730.36–2.071.16–4.81safer0.55–2.990.13–2.300.68–5.28
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.493.929.40safe3.62–7.352.17–5.665.80–13.01safer3.14–7.841.71–6.124.84–13.96
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3211.8627.18safe11.40–19.258.30–15.4219.70–34.67safer10.31–20.347.34–16.3817.65–36.72
Shots in box
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.867.9817.84safe6.92–12.815.30–10.6612.22–23.47safer6.09–13.644.56–11.4010.65–25.03
Blocked shots
55%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.183.297.47safe2.30–6.061.64–4.943.94–11.01safer1.75–6.611.15–5.442.90–12.04
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.359.78safe3.21–7.642.35–6.355.57–13.99safer2.64–8.211.82–6.894.46–15.10
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction53.1848.17safe46.39–59.9741.39–54.96safer44.72–61.6439.72–56.63
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction522468990safe455–589402–535857–1124safer437–607384–552821–1160
Pass accuracy %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction71.6274.20safe67.59–75.6569.87–78.52safer66.30–76.9468.56–79.83
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4213.8025.21safe8.58–14.2510.85–16.7419.43–31.00safer7.82–15.0110.10–17.4917.93–32.50
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.613.71safe0.94–3.260.52–2.711.46–5.96safer0.63–3.560.23–3.000.87–6.55
Yellow cards
29%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.263.97safe0.66–2.761.13–3.391.79–6.15safer0.39–3.030.84–3.681.23–6.71
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.496.25safe1.32–4.191.94–5.053.26–9.24safer0.93–4.581.51–5.472.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.73 0.55–2.99 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.98 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.28 | 50% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.62–7.35 3.14–7.84 | 3.92 2.17–5.66 1.71–6.12 | 9.40 5.80–13.01 4.84–13.96 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.32 11.40–19.25 10.31–20.34 | 11.86 8.30–15.42 7.34–16.38 | 27.18 19.70–34.67 17.65–36.72 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.86 6.92–12.81 6.09–13.64 | 7.98 5.30–10.66 4.56–11.40 | 17.84 12.22–23.47 10.65–25.03 | 63% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.18 2.30–6.06 1.75–6.61 | 3.29 1.64–4.94 1.15–5.44 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 55% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.82–6.89 | 9.78 5.57–13.99 4.46–15.10 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.18 46.39–59.97 44.72–61.64 | 48.17 41.39–54.96 39.72–56.63 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 522 455–589 437–607 | 468 402–535 384–552 | 990 857–1124 821–1160 | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.62 67.59–75.65 66.30–76.94 | 74.20 69.87–78.52 68.56–79.83 | — | 35% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.58–14.25 7.82–15.01 | 13.80 10.85–16.74 10.10–17.49 | 25.21 19.43–31.00 17.93–32.50 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.94–3.26 0.63–3.56 | 1.61 0.52–2.71 0.23–3.00 | 3.71 1.46–5.96 0.87–6.55 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.03 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.71 | 29% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.49 1.94–5.05 1.51–5.47 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.06 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.