Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.343.01safe0.71–2.640.48–2.191.19–4.83safer0.45–2.890.26–2.420.71–5.31
Shots on target
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.214.719.93safe3.35–7.082.97–6.466.32–13.53safer2.86–7.572.51–6.925.37–14.49
Total shots
65%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6213.1128.73safe11.69–19.549.55–16.6821.24–36.22safer10.60–20.638.59–17.6419.19–38.27
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction10.138.7518.87safe7.19–13.076.06–11.4313.25–24.50safer6.36–13.905.33–12.1611.68–26.06
Blocked shots
42%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.138.22safe2.21–5.972.48–5.784.68–11.76safer1.67–6.521.98–6.273.65–12.79
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.8310.40safe3.36–7.782.83–6.836.18–14.61safer2.78–8.362.30–7.365.08–15.72
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.8150.39safe44.02–57.6043.61–57.18safer42.35–59.2741.94–58.85
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction483444926safe416–550377–510793–1060safer397–568360–528757–1096
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction69.2572.91safe65.22–73.2868.59–77.24safer63.93–74.5767.28–78.55
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6811.9326.61safe11.84–17.528.99–14.8720.83–32.39safer11.09–18.278.24–15.6219.32–33.90
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.683.57safe0.73–3.050.59–2.781.32–5.82safer0.42–3.350.30–3.060.73–6.41
Yellow cards
39%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.823.62safe0.75–2.850.69–2.951.44–5.79safer0.48–3.110.40–3.240.88–6.35
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.546.63safe1.65–4.521.99–5.103.63–9.62safer1.26–4.911.56–5.522.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.89 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 3.01 1.19–4.83 0.71–5.31 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.21 3.35–7.08 2.86–7.57 | 4.71 2.97–6.46 2.51–6.92 | 9.93 6.32–13.53 5.37–14.49 | 50% 37% |
| Total shots | 15.62 11.69–19.54 10.60–20.63 | 13.11 9.55–16.68 8.59–17.64 | 28.73 21.24–36.22 19.19–38.27 | 65% 29% |
| Shots in box | 10.13 7.19–13.07 6.36–13.90 | 8.75 6.06–11.43 5.33–12.16 | 18.87 13.25–24.50 11.68–26.06 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.21–5.97 1.67–6.52 | 4.13 2.48–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 8.22 4.68–11.76 3.65–12.79 | 42% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.78–8.36 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.30–7.36 | 10.40 6.18–14.61 5.08–15.72 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 50.81 44.02–57.60 42.35–59.27 | 50.39 43.61–57.18 41.94–58.85 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 483 416–550 397–568 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 926 793–1060 757–1096 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.25 65.22–73.28 63.93–74.57 | 72.91 68.59–77.24 67.28–78.55 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 14.68 11.84–17.52 11.09–18.27 | 11.93 8.99–14.87 8.24–15.62 | 26.61 20.83–32.39 19.32–33.90 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.42–3.35 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.06 | 3.57 1.32–5.82 0.73–6.41 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.11 | 1.82 0.69–2.95 0.40–3.24 | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 39% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 3.54 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.52 | 6.63 3.63–9.62 2.82–10.43 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.