Ligue 1·Regular Season - 16·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.102.70safe0.64–2.570.24–1.950.88–4.52safer0.39–2.820.01–2.180.40–5.00
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.438.36safe3.07–6.791.69–5.184.76–11.97safer2.58–7.281.23–5.643.80–12.92
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0811.2326.30safe11.15–19.007.66–14.7918.82–33.79safer10.06–20.096.70–15.7516.76–35.84
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.577.2216.79safe6.63–12.524.54–9.9011.17–22.41safer5.80–13.343.80–10.639.60–23.98
Blocked shots
53%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.916.54safe1.75–5.511.26–4.563.00–10.07safer1.20–6.050.76–5.051.97–11.11
Corners
58%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.7810.68safe3.69–8.122.78–6.786.47–14.90safer3.12–8.692.24–7.315.36–16.00
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction58.1642.60safe51.37–64.9535.81–49.38safer49.70–66.6234.14–51.05
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction492351843safe425–559285–418709–977safer406–577267–435673–1012
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction69.8364.20safe65.81–73.8659.88–68.52safer64.51–75.1658.57–69.83
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0011.9024.90safe10.17–15.848.95–14.8419.12–30.68safer9.41–16.608.20–15.5917.61–32.19
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.703.53safe0.67–2.990.61–2.791.28–5.78safer0.37–3.290.32–3.080.69–6.37
Yellow cards
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.813.39safe0.53–2.630.68–2.941.22–5.57safer0.26–2.900.39–3.230.66–6.13
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.456.02safe1.14–4.011.89–5.013.03–9.02safer0.75–4.401.47–5.432.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.57 0.39–2.82 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.79 2.58–7.28 | 3.43 1.69–5.18 1.23–5.64 | 8.36 4.76–11.97 3.80–12.92 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.08 11.15–19.00 10.06–20.09 | 11.23 7.66–14.79 6.70–15.75 | 26.30 18.82–33.79 16.76–35.84 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.57 6.63–12.52 5.80–13.34 | 7.22 4.54–9.90 3.80–10.63 | 16.79 11.17–22.41 9.60–23.98 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.05 | 2.91 1.26–4.56 0.76–5.05 | 6.54 3.00–10.07 1.97–11.11 | 53% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.69–8.12 3.12–8.69 | 4.78 2.78–6.78 2.24–7.31 | 10.68 6.47–14.90 5.36–16.00 | 58% 31% |
| Possession % | 58.16 51.37–64.95 49.70–66.62 | 42.60 35.81–49.38 34.14–51.05 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 492 425–559 406–577 | 351 285–418 267–435 | 843 709–977 673–1012 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.83 65.81–73.86 64.51–75.16 | 64.20 59.88–68.52 58.57–69.83 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 13.00 10.17–15.84 9.41–16.60 | 11.90 8.95–14.84 8.20–15.59 | 24.90 19.12–30.68 17.61–32.19 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.70 0.61–2.79 0.32–3.08 | 3.53 1.28–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.90 | 1.81 0.68–2.94 0.39–3.23 | 3.39 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 34% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.45 1.89–5.01 1.47–5.43 | 6.02 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.