Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.282.61safe0.36–2.290.43–2.140.79–4.43safer0.11–2.550.20–2.370.31–4.91
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.048.61safe2.70–6.432.30–5.795.01–12.22safer2.21–6.921.84–6.254.05–13.17
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6212.1225.74safe9.70–17.548.56–15.6818.25–33.23safer8.60–18.647.60–16.6416.20–35.28
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.728.1916.90safe5.77–11.665.51–10.8711.28–22.53safer4.95–12.494.77–11.619.71–24.09
Blocked shots
43%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.527.10safe1.70–5.471.86–5.173.56–10.64safer1.16–6.011.37–5.662.53–11.67
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.409.79safe3.18–7.612.40–6.405.58–14.00safer2.61–8.181.86–6.934.47–15.11
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction55.0245.26safe48.23–61.8138.47–52.04safer46.56–63.4836.80–53.71
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction538411949safe470–605345–478815–1083safer452–623327–495780–1118
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction72.8971.30safe68.86–76.9266.97–75.62safer67.57–78.2165.66–76.93
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5912.0923.67safe8.75–14.439.14–15.0317.89–29.46safer8.00–15.188.39–15.7816.39–30.96
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.423.52safe0.94–3.260.32–2.511.26–5.77safer0.64–3.560.04–2.800.67–6.36
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.893.50safe0.56–2.660.76–3.021.33–5.68safer0.30–2.930.47–3.310.77–6.24
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.236.04safe1.37–4.241.68–4.793.04–9.03safer0.98–4.631.25–5.212.23–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 4.04 2.30–5.79 1.84–6.25 | 8.61 5.01–12.22 4.05–13.17 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.62 9.70–17.54 8.60–18.64 | 12.12 8.56–15.68 7.60–16.64 | 25.74 18.25–33.23 16.20–35.28 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.72 5.77–11.66 4.95–12.49 | 8.19 5.51–10.87 4.77–11.61 | 16.90 11.28–22.53 9.71–24.09 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.70–5.47 1.16–6.01 | 3.52 1.86–5.17 1.37–5.66 | 7.10 3.56–10.64 2.53–11.67 | 43% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.86–6.93 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 55.02 48.23–61.81 46.56–63.48 | 45.26 38.47–52.04 36.80–53.71 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 538 470–605 452–623 | 411 345–478 327–495 | 949 815–1083 780–1118 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.89 68.86–76.92 67.57–78.21 | 71.30 66.97–75.62 65.66–76.93 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 11.59 8.75–14.43 8.00–15.18 | 12.09 9.14–15.03 8.39–15.78 | 23.67 17.89–29.46 16.39–30.96 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.94–3.26 0.64–3.56 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 53% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.50 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.37–4.24 0.98–4.63 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.21 | 6.04 3.04–9.03 2.23–9.84 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.