Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.263.18safe0.95–2.890.41–2.121.36–5.00safer0.70–3.140.18–2.350.88–5.48
Shots on target
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.904.4910.39safe4.03–7.762.75–6.236.78–13.99safer3.54–8.252.28–6.705.83–14.95
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5711.5328.10safe12.65–20.497.97–15.0920.61–35.59safer11.55–21.597.01–16.0518.56–37.64
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.577.6719.23safe8.62–14.514.99–10.3513.61–24.86safer7.79–15.344.25–11.0812.04–26.42
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.613.017.62safe2.73–6.491.36–4.664.09–11.16safer2.18–7.030.87–5.163.05–12.19
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.084.1410.23safe3.87–8.292.14–6.156.01–14.44safer3.29–8.871.61–6.684.91–15.55
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.4444.03safe49.65–63.2337.24–50.81safer47.98–64.9035.57–52.48
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction515403918safe448–583336–469784–1052safer430–601319–487749–1087
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction72.6468.77safe68.61–76.6764.45–73.09safer67.32–77.9663.14–74.40
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6112.6424.25safe8.78–14.459.69–15.5818.47–30.03safer8.02–15.218.94–16.3316.96–31.54
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.603.52safe0.76–3.080.50–2.691.26–5.77safer0.46–3.380.21–2.980.67–6.36
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.424.06safe0.60–2.701.29–3.541.88–6.24safer0.33–2.961.00–3.841.33–6.80
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.140.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.84
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.756.62safe1.44–4.312.19–5.303.62–9.61safer1.05–4.701.76–5.732.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.92 0.95–2.89 0.70–3.14 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 3.18 1.36–5.00 0.88–5.48 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.90 4.03–7.76 3.54–8.25 | 4.49 2.75–6.23 2.28–6.70 | 10.39 6.78–13.99 5.83–14.95 | 61% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.57 12.65–20.49 11.55–21.59 | 11.53 7.97–15.09 7.01–16.05 | 28.10 20.61–35.59 18.56–37.64 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 11.57 8.62–14.51 7.79–15.34 | 7.67 4.99–10.35 4.25–11.08 | 19.23 13.61–24.86 12.04–26.42 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 2.73–6.49 2.18–7.03 | 3.01 1.36–4.66 0.87–5.16 | 7.62 4.09–11.16 3.05–12.19 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 6.08 3.87–8.29 3.29–8.87 | 4.14 2.14–6.15 1.61–6.68 | 10.23 6.01–14.44 4.91–15.55 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 56.44 49.65–63.23 47.98–64.90 | 44.03 37.24–50.81 35.57–52.48 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 515 448–583 430–601 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 918 784–1052 749–1087 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.64 68.61–76.67 67.32–77.96 | 68.77 64.45–73.09 63.14–74.40 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 11.61 8.78–14.45 8.02–15.21 | 12.64 9.69–15.58 8.94–16.33 | 24.25 18.47–30.03 16.96–31.54 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.98 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.96 | 2.42 1.29–3.54 1.00–3.84 | 4.06 1.88–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 3.75 2.19–5.30 1.76–5.73 | 6.62 3.62–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.