Ligue 1·Regular Season - 16·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.193.02safe0.87–2.800.33–2.041.20–4.85safer0.62–3.050.11–2.270.72–5.33
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.099.55safe3.60–7.322.35–5.845.95–13.16safer3.11–7.811.89–6.304.99–14.11
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2210.9527.17safe12.29–20.147.39–14.5119.68–34.65safer11.20–21.236.43–15.4717.63–36.71
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.097.0217.11safe7.15–13.034.34–9.7011.49–22.73safer6.32–13.863.60–10.449.92–24.30
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.862.886.74safe1.98–5.741.23–4.543.21–10.28safer1.43–6.280.74–5.032.17–11.31
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.964.0710.03safe3.74–8.172.07–6.075.81–14.24safer3.17–8.741.54–6.604.71–15.35
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.3146.36safe47.52–61.1039.58–53.15safer45.85–62.7737.91–54.82
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction511449961safe444–579383–516827–1094safer426–597365–533791–1130
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction73.3473.08safe69.31–77.3768.75–77.40safer68.02–78.6767.44–78.71
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6112.9424.55safe8.77–14.4510.00–15.8818.77–30.33safer8.02–15.209.25–16.6317.26–31.84
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.743.59safe0.68–3.000.65–2.841.33–5.84safer0.38–3.310.36–3.130.74–6.43
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.283.97safe0.65–2.741.15–3.411.79–6.15safer0.38–3.010.86–3.701.24–6.71
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
29%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.556.25safe1.27–4.141.99–5.103.26–9.24safer0.88–4.521.57–5.532.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.87–2.80 0.62–3.05 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.11–2.27 | 3.02 1.20–4.85 0.72–5.33 | 53% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.46 3.60–7.32 3.11–7.81 | 4.09 2.35–5.84 1.89–6.30 | 9.55 5.95–13.16 4.99–14.11 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 16.22 12.29–20.14 11.20–21.23 | 10.95 7.39–14.51 6.43–15.47 | 27.17 19.68–34.65 17.63–36.71 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.09 7.15–13.03 6.32–13.86 | 7.02 4.34–9.70 3.60–10.44 | 17.11 11.49–22.73 9.92–24.30 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.98–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 2.88 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 6.74 3.21–10.28 2.17–11.31 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.74–8.17 3.17–8.74 | 4.07 2.07–6.07 1.54–6.60 | 10.03 5.81–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 54.31 47.52–61.10 45.85–62.77 | 46.36 39.58–53.15 37.91–54.82 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 511 444–579 426–597 | 449 383–516 365–533 | 961 827–1094 791–1130 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.34 69.31–77.37 68.02–78.67 | 73.08 68.75–77.40 67.44–78.71 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 11.61 8.77–14.45 8.02–15.20 | 12.94 10.00–15.88 9.25–16.63 | 24.55 18.77–30.33 17.26–31.84 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.31 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.59 1.33–5.84 0.74–6.43 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.65–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 2.28 1.15–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.52 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.57–5.53 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 29% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.