Ligue 1·Regular Season - 17·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.092.71safe0.66–2.590.23–1.940.89–4.53safer0.41–2.840.00–2.170.41–5.01
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.864.079.94safe4.00–7.722.33–5.826.33–13.54safer3.51–8.211.87–6.285.38–14.50
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4111.4126.82safe11.49–19.347.85–14.9819.34–34.31safer10.40–20.436.89–15.9417.29–36.36
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.827.9217.74safe6.88–12.765.24–10.6012.12–23.37safer6.05–13.594.50–11.3410.55–24.93
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.127.29safe2.29–6.061.46–4.773.75–10.83safer1.75–6.600.97–5.262.72–11.86
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.554.0210.57safe4.33–8.762.02–6.026.36–14.78safer3.76–9.331.49–6.565.25–15.89
Possession %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction58.1942.68safe51.40–64.9835.89–49.46safer49.73–66.6534.22–51.13
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction544389933safe477–611322–455799–1066safer458–629305–473763–1102
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction70.8568.04safe66.82–74.8863.71–72.36safer65.53–76.1762.40–73.67
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2913.5925.88safe9.45–15.1310.65–16.5320.10–31.66safer8.70–15.889.90–17.2818.59–33.17
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.873.83safe0.80–3.120.78–2.961.58–6.08safer0.50–3.420.49–3.250.99–6.67
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.993.63safe0.60–2.700.86–3.111.45–5.81safer0.33–2.960.57–3.410.90–6.37
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.626.30safe1.24–4.122.06–5.173.30–9.29safer0.86–4.501.64–5.602.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.66–2.59 0.41–2.84 | 1.09 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 50% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.86 4.00–7.72 3.51–8.21 | 4.07 2.33–5.82 1.87–6.28 | 9.94 6.33–13.54 5.38–14.50 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.41 11.49–19.34 10.40–20.43 | 11.41 7.85–14.98 6.89–15.94 | 26.82 19.34–34.31 17.29–36.36 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.82 6.88–12.76 6.05–13.59 | 7.92 5.24–10.60 4.50–11.34 | 17.74 12.12–23.37 10.55–24.93 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.06 1.75–6.60 | 3.12 1.46–4.77 0.97–5.26 | 7.29 3.75–10.83 2.72–11.86 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 6.55 4.33–8.76 3.76–9.33 | 4.02 2.02–6.02 1.49–6.56 | 10.57 6.36–14.78 5.25–15.89 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 58.19 51.40–64.98 49.73–66.65 | 42.68 35.89–49.46 34.22–51.13 | — | 80% 16% |
| Passes | 544 477–611 458–629 | 389 322–455 305–473 | 933 799–1066 763–1102 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.85 66.82–74.88 65.53–76.17 | 68.04 63.71–72.36 62.40–73.67 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.45–15.13 8.70–15.88 | 13.59 10.65–16.53 9.90–17.28 | 25.88 20.10–31.66 18.59–33.17 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.87 0.78–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 3.83 1.58–6.08 0.99–6.67 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.96 | 1.99 0.86–3.11 0.57–3.41 | 3.63 1.45–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 3.62 2.06–5.17 1.64–5.60 | 6.30 3.30–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.