Ligue 1·Regular Season - 17·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.742.96safe0.25–2.190.89–2.601.14–4.79safer0.00–2.440.66–2.830.66–5.27
Shots on target
31%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.245.219.45safe2.37–6.103.47–6.965.85–13.06safer1.88–6.593.01–7.424.89–14.01
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9314.1226.04safe8.00–15.8510.56–17.6818.56–33.53safer6.91–16.949.60–18.6416.51–35.58
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.299.9017.20safe4.35–10.247.22–12.5811.57–22.82safer3.52–11.076.48–13.3210.01–24.39
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.954.107.05safe1.06–4.832.45–5.753.51–10.58safer0.52–5.371.95–6.242.48–11.62
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.725.4910.21safe2.50–6.933.49–7.495.99–14.42safer1.93–7.502.95–8.024.88–15.53
Possession %
41%
55%
homeawayprediction48.9151.91safe42.12–55.7045.12–58.69safer40.45–57.3743.45–60.36
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction445472917safe377–512406–539783–1050safer359–530388–556747–1086
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction69.5875.67safe65.55–73.6171.34–79.99safer64.26–74.9070.03–81.30
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7911.9424.73safe9.96–15.639.00–14.8818.95–30.51safer9.20–16.398.25–15.6317.45–32.02
Offsides
34%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.973.66safe0.53–2.850.88–3.071.41–5.92safer0.23–3.150.59–3.350.82–6.51
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.174.18safe0.96–3.061.04–3.302.00–6.36safer0.70–3.330.75–3.591.45–6.92
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.432.936.36safe1.99–4.861.37–4.493.36–9.35safer1.60–5.250.95–4.912.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.74 0.89–2.60 0.66–2.83 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 27% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.24 2.37–6.10 1.88–6.59 | 5.21 3.47–6.96 3.01–7.42 | 9.45 5.85–13.06 4.89–14.01 | 31% 56% |
| Total shots | 11.93 8.00–15.85 6.91–16.94 | 14.12 10.56–17.68 9.60–18.64 | 26.04 18.56–33.53 16.51–35.58 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 7.29 4.35–10.24 3.52–11.07 | 9.90 7.22–12.58 6.48–13.32 | 17.20 11.57–22.82 10.01–24.39 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.06–4.83 0.52–5.37 | 4.10 2.45–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.05 3.51–10.58 2.48–11.62 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.72 2.50–6.93 1.93–7.50 | 5.49 3.49–7.49 2.95–8.02 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.88–15.53 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 48.91 42.12–55.70 40.45–57.37 | 51.91 45.12–58.69 43.45–60.36 | — | 41% 55% |
| Passes | 445 377–512 359–530 | 472 406–539 388–556 | 917 783–1050 747–1086 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.58 65.55–73.61 64.26–74.90 | 75.67 71.34–79.99 70.03–81.30 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.96–15.63 9.20–16.39 | 11.94 9.00–14.88 8.25–15.63 | 24.73 18.95–30.51 17.45–32.02 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.97 0.88–3.07 0.59–3.35 | 3.66 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 34% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.70–3.33 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.43 1.99–4.86 1.60–5.25 | 2.93 1.37–4.49 0.95–4.91 | 6.36 3.36–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.