Ligue 1·Regular Season - 18·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.172.67safe0.53–2.460.32–2.030.84–4.49safer0.27–2.710.09–2.260.36–4.97
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.713.908.61safe2.85–6.572.16–5.655.01–12.22safer2.36–7.061.69–6.114.05–13.17
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2812.1027.38safe11.36–19.218.54–15.6619.90–34.87safer10.27–20.307.58–16.6217.85–36.92
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.747.6917.43safe6.80–12.685.01–10.3711.81–23.05safer5.97–13.514.27–11.1110.24–24.62
Blocked shots
51%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.487.55safe2.19–5.951.83–5.144.02–11.09safer1.65–6.501.34–5.632.98–12.13
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.414.489.89safe3.20–7.622.48–6.485.67–14.10safer2.62–8.201.95–7.014.57–15.21
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.4754.33safe38.68–52.2647.54–61.11safer37.01–53.9345.87–62.78
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction409490900safe342–477424–557766–1033safer324–495406–574730–1069
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction67.0974.26safe63.06–71.1269.94–78.58safer61.77–72.4168.63–79.89
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4712.4525.91safe10.63–16.309.50–15.3920.13–31.69safer9.87–17.068.75–16.1418.63–33.20
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.713.74safe0.88–3.200.61–2.801.49–6.00safer0.58–3.500.32–3.090.90–6.59
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.953.83safe0.83–2.930.82–3.081.65–6.00safer0.56–3.190.53–3.371.09–6.56
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.135.86safe1.29–4.171.57–4.692.87–8.85safer0.91–4.551.15–5.112.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.53–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.67 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 45% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.85–6.57 2.36–7.06 | 3.90 2.16–5.65 1.69–6.11 | 8.61 5.01–12.22 4.05–13.17 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.28 11.36–19.21 10.27–20.30 | 12.10 8.54–15.66 7.58–16.62 | 27.38 19.90–34.87 17.85–36.92 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.74 6.80–12.68 5.97–13.51 | 7.69 5.01–10.37 4.27–11.11 | 17.43 11.81–23.05 10.24–24.62 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.19–5.95 1.65–6.50 | 3.48 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.55 4.02–11.09 2.98–12.13 | 51% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.20–7.62 2.62–8.20 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 9.89 5.67–14.10 4.57–15.21 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 45.47 38.68–52.26 37.01–53.93 | 54.33 47.54–61.11 45.87–62.78 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 409 342–477 324–495 | 490 424–557 406–574 | 900 766–1033 730–1069 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.09 63.06–71.12 61.77–72.41 | 74.26 69.94–78.58 68.63–79.89 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 13.47 10.63–16.30 9.87–17.06 | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.14 | 25.91 20.13–31.69 18.63–33.20 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.71 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.09 | 3.74 1.49–6.00 0.90–6.59 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.56–3.19 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.17 0.91–4.55 | 3.13 1.57–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.