Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.572.72safe0.18–2.120.72–2.430.90–4.54safer0.00–2.370.49–2.660.42–5.02
Shots on target
36%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.324.869.17safe2.45–6.183.11–6.605.57–12.78safer1.96–6.672.65–7.064.61–13.73
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0511.9525.00safe9.13–16.988.38–15.5117.51–32.49safer8.04–18.077.43–16.4715.46–34.54
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.948.3516.29safe5.00–10.885.67–11.0310.67–21.91safer4.17–11.714.93–11.779.10–23.48
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.323.256.57safe1.44–5.211.59–4.903.04–10.11safer0.90–5.751.10–5.392.00–11.14
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.095.1210.21safe2.88–7.303.12–7.125.99–14.42safer2.30–7.882.58–7.654.89–15.53
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction42.9957.08safe36.20–49.7850.30–63.87safer34.53–51.4548.62–65.54
Passes
17%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction413525937safe345–480458–591804–1071safer327–498441–609768–1107
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction68.0674.77safe64.03–72.0970.45–79.09safer62.74–73.3869.14–80.40
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9410.9922.93safe9.10–14.788.05–13.9317.15–28.71safer8.35–15.547.30–14.6815.65–30.22
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.863.50safe0.47–2.790.77–2.961.24–5.75safer0.17–3.090.48–3.250.65–6.34
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.683.26safe0.53–2.620.56–2.811.08–5.44safer0.26–2.890.26–3.100.52–5.99
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
44%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.006.17safe1.73–4.601.45–4.563.17–9.16safer1.34–4.991.02–4.982.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.57 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.66 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 28% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.32 2.45–6.18 1.96–6.67 | 4.86 3.11–6.60 2.65–7.06 | 9.17 5.57–12.78 4.61–13.73 | 36% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.05 9.13–16.98 8.04–18.07 | 11.95 8.38–15.51 7.43–16.47 | 25.00 17.51–32.49 15.46–34.54 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.94 5.00–10.88 4.17–11.71 | 8.35 5.67–11.03 4.93–11.77 | 16.29 10.67–21.91 9.10–23.48 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.44–5.21 0.90–5.75 | 3.25 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 6.57 3.04–10.11 2.00–11.14 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.30 2.30–7.88 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.58–7.65 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 42.99 36.20–49.78 34.53–51.45 | 57.08 50.30–63.87 48.62–65.54 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 413 345–480 327–498 | 525 458–591 441–609 | 937 804–1071 768–1107 | 17% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.06 64.03–72.09 62.74–73.38 | 74.77 70.45–79.09 69.14–80.40 | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 11.94 9.10–14.78 8.35–15.54 | 10.99 8.05–13.93 7.30–14.68 | 22.93 17.15–28.71 15.65–30.22 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 1.86 0.77–2.96 0.48–3.25 | 3.50 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.53–2.62 0.26–2.89 | 1.68 0.56–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.26 1.08–5.44 0.52–5.99 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.73–4.60 1.34–4.99 | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.98 | 6.17 3.17–9.16 2.36–9.97 | 44% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.