Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.123.10safe1.01–2.940.27–1.981.28–4.92safer0.76–3.200.04–2.210.80–5.40
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.534.0210.55safe4.66–8.392.28–5.766.94–14.15safer4.17–8.881.81–6.235.99–15.11
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction17.8511.4829.33safe13.93–21.787.92–15.0421.85–36.82safer12.84–22.876.96–16.0019.80–38.87
Shots in box
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction11.868.3620.21safe8.92–14.805.67–11.0414.59–25.84safer8.09–15.634.94–11.7713.02–27.40
Blocked shots
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.098.78safe2.81–6.582.43–5.745.25–12.32safer2.27–7.121.94–6.234.21–13.35
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.294.4910.78safe4.07–8.502.49–6.496.57–14.99safer3.50–9.071.96–7.035.46–16.10
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.9649.10safe45.17–58.7542.32–55.89safer43.50–60.4240.65–57.56
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction502440942safe435–569373–506808–1075safer417–587356–524772–1111
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction69.2772.18safe65.24–73.3067.86–76.51safer63.95–74.5966.55–77.82
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4111.5223.93safe9.58–15.258.58–14.4718.15–29.72safer8.82–16.017.83–15.2116.65–31.22
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.693.57safe0.72–3.040.60–2.791.32–5.83safer0.42–3.340.31–3.080.73–6.42
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.803.44safe0.60–2.690.67–2.921.26–5.62safer0.33–2.960.38–3.220.71–6.18
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
22%
13%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.724.276.99safe1.29–4.162.72–5.834.00–9.99safer0.90–4.552.29–6.253.19–10.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.98 1.01–2.94 0.76–3.20 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.80–5.40 | 57% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 6.53 4.66–8.39 4.17–8.88 | 4.02 2.28–5.76 1.81–6.23 | 10.55 6.94–14.15 5.99–15.11 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 17.85 13.93–21.78 12.84–22.87 | 11.48 7.92–15.04 6.96–16.00 | 29.33 21.85–36.82 19.80–38.87 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.86 8.92–14.80 8.09–15.63 | 8.36 5.67–11.04 4.94–11.77 | 20.21 14.59–25.84 13.02–27.40 | 75% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.69 2.81–6.58 2.27–7.12 | 4.09 2.43–5.74 1.94–6.23 | 8.78 5.25–12.32 4.21–13.35 | 51% 13% 35% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.07–8.50 3.50–9.07 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.03 | 10.78 6.57–14.99 5.46–16.10 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 51.96 45.17–58.75 43.50–60.42 | 49.10 42.32–55.89 40.65–57.56 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 502 435–569 417–587 | 440 373–506 356–524 | 942 808–1075 772–1111 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.27 65.24–73.30 63.95–74.59 | 72.18 67.86–76.51 66.55–77.82 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 12.41 9.58–15.25 8.82–16.01 | 11.52 8.58–14.47 7.83–15.21 | 23.93 18.15–29.72 16.65–31.22 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.69 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 3.57 1.32–5.83 0.73–6.42 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 1.80 0.67–2.92 0.38–3.22 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.71–6.18 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 4.27 2.72–5.83 2.29–6.25 | 6.99 4.00–9.99 3.19–10.80 | 22% 13% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.