Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.292.77safe0.52–2.450.43–2.140.95–4.60safer0.27–2.700.21–2.370.47–5.08
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.048.58safe2.68–6.412.29–5.784.98–12.19safer2.19–6.901.83–6.244.02–13.14
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6712.2225.89safe9.75–17.608.66–15.7818.40–33.38safer8.66–18.697.70–16.7416.35–35.43
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.747.8416.58safe5.80–11.685.16–10.5210.95–22.20safer4.97–12.514.42–11.259.39–23.77
Blocked shots
55%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.167.15safe2.11–5.871.51–4.813.61–10.68safer1.56–6.411.01–5.302.57–11.72
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction6.004.7910.78safe3.78–8.212.79–6.796.57–15.00safer3.21–8.782.25–7.325.46–16.11
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.5143.96safe49.72–63.3037.17–50.74safer48.05–64.9735.50–52.41
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction486375861safe418–553309–442727–995safer400–571291–459692–1030
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction68.7767.55safe64.74–72.8063.23–71.88safer63.44–74.0961.92–73.19
Fouls
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5914.1924.78safe7.75–13.4211.25–17.1419.00–30.56safer6.99–14.1810.50–17.8917.49–32.07
Offsides
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.843.51safe0.51–2.830.75–2.931.26–5.76safer0.21–3.130.46–3.220.67–6.35
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.003.56safe0.51–2.610.87–3.131.38–5.74safer0.24–2.870.58–3.420.82–6.29
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.145.96safe1.38–4.251.59–4.702.97–8.95safer0.99–4.641.16–5.122.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.27–2.70 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.21–2.37 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.08 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.90 | 4.04 2.29–5.78 1.83–6.24 | 8.58 4.98–12.19 4.02–13.14 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.75–17.60 8.66–18.69 | 12.22 8.66–15.78 7.70–16.74 | 25.89 18.40–33.38 16.35–35.43 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 5.80–11.68 4.97–12.51 | 7.84 5.16–10.52 4.42–11.25 | 16.58 10.95–22.20 9.39–23.77 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 3.16 1.51–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.15 3.61–10.68 2.57–11.72 | 55% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.78–8.21 3.21–8.78 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.25–7.32 | 10.78 6.57–15.00 5.46–16.11 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 56.51 49.72–63.30 48.05–64.97 | 43.96 37.17–50.74 35.50–52.41 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 486 418–553 400–571 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 861 727–995 692–1030 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.77 64.74–72.80 63.44–74.09 | 67.55 63.23–71.88 61.92–73.19 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.59 7.75–13.42 6.99–14.18 | 14.19 11.25–17.14 10.50–17.89 | 24.78 19.00–30.56 17.49–32.07 | 20% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.13 | 1.84 0.75–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 3.51 1.26–5.76 0.67–6.35 | 35% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.24–2.87 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.56 1.38–5.74 0.82–6.29 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.