Ligue 1·Regular Season - 23·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.232.89safe0.69–2.630.37–2.081.06–4.71safer0.44–2.880.14–2.310.58–5.19
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.059.24safe3.32–7.052.31–5.805.63–12.84safer2.83–7.541.85–6.264.68–13.80
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8412.4527.29safe10.92–18.778.89–16.0119.80–34.78safer9.83–19.867.93–16.9717.75–36.83
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction10.178.2118.39safe7.23–13.125.53–10.9012.77–24.01safer6.40–13.954.80–11.6311.20–25.58
Blocked shots
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.968.37safe2.53–6.292.31–5.614.84–11.91safer1.99–6.841.81–6.113.80–12.94
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.199.81safe3.41–7.842.19–6.195.60–14.03safer2.84–8.411.66–6.724.49–15.13
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.3351.96safe41.54–55.1245.18–58.75safer39.87–56.7943.51–60.42
Passes
42%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction464486951safe397–531420–553817–1084safer379–550402–570781–1120
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction68.5274.24safe64.49–72.5569.92–78.56safer63.20–73.8468.61–79.87
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8411.6023.44safe9.00–14.688.65–14.5417.66–29.22safer8.25–15.447.91–15.2916.15–30.73
Offsides
45%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.663.61safe0.78–3.100.57–2.761.35–5.86safer0.48–3.400.28–3.050.76–6.45
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.883.72safe0.79–2.890.75–3.011.54–5.90safer0.52–3.150.46–3.300.98–6.45
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.406.36safe1.52–4.391.85–4.963.37–9.35safer1.13–4.781.42–5.382.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.63 0.44–2.88 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.89 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.19 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.18 3.32–7.05 2.83–7.54 | 4.05 2.31–5.80 1.85–6.26 | 9.24 5.63–12.84 4.68–13.80 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.84 10.92–18.77 9.83–19.86 | 12.45 8.89–16.01 7.93–16.97 | 27.29 19.80–34.78 17.75–36.83 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 10.17 7.23–13.12 6.40–13.95 | 8.21 5.53–10.90 4.80–11.63 | 18.39 12.77–24.01 11.20–25.58 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.53–6.29 1.99–6.84 | 3.96 2.31–5.61 1.81–6.11 | 8.37 4.84–11.91 3.80–12.94 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.41–7.84 2.84–8.41 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.66–6.72 | 9.81 5.60–14.03 4.49–15.13 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 48.33 41.54–55.12 39.87–56.79 | 51.96 45.18–58.75 43.51–60.42 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 464 397–531 379–550 | 486 420–553 402–570 | 951 817–1084 781–1120 | 42% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.52 64.49–72.55 63.20–73.84 | 74.24 69.92–78.56 68.61–79.87 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.84 9.00–14.68 8.25–15.44 | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.91–15.29 | 23.44 17.66–29.22 16.15–30.73 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.66 0.57–2.76 0.28–3.05 | 3.61 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 45% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.52–3.15 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.72 1.54–5.90 0.98–6.45 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 3.40 1.85–4.96 1.42–5.38 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.56–10.17 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.