Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.472.91safe0.48–2.410.61–2.321.09–4.73safer0.23–2.660.38–2.550.61–5.21
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.559.69safe3.28–7.002.81–6.296.09–13.30safer2.79–7.492.34–6.765.13–14.25
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4312.0327.46safe11.50–19.358.47–15.6019.97–34.95safer10.41–20.447.51–16.5617.92–37.00
Shots in box
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.527.9017.43safe6.58–12.465.22–10.5811.80–23.05safer5.75–13.294.49–11.3210.24–24.62
Blocked shots
48%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.567.47safe2.03–5.791.91–5.213.93–11.00safer1.48–6.331.41–5.702.90–12.04
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.514.399.90safe3.30–7.732.39–6.395.69–14.12safer2.73–8.301.85–6.924.58–15.22
Possession %
54%
42%
homeawayprediction51.3148.77safe44.52–58.1041.98–55.55safer42.85–59.7740.31–57.22
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5525021055safe485–619436–569921–1188safer467–638418–586885–1224
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction71.6475.17safe67.61–75.6770.85–79.49safer66.32–76.9669.54–80.80
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.6821.99safe7.48–13.158.73–14.6216.21–27.78safer6.72–13.917.99–15.3714.71–29.28
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.703.28safe0.42–2.740.60–2.791.02–5.53safer0.12–3.040.31–3.080.43–6.12
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.953.39safe0.39–2.490.82–3.081.21–5.57safer0.13–2.760.53–3.370.65–6.12
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.506.54safe1.61–4.481.94–5.053.55–9.53safer1.22–4.871.52–5.482.74–10.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.41 0.23–2.66 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.55 | 2.91 1.09–4.73 0.61–5.21 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.14 3.28–7.00 2.79–7.49 | 4.55 2.81–6.29 2.34–6.76 | 9.69 6.09–13.30 5.13–14.25 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.43 11.50–19.35 10.41–20.44 | 12.03 8.47–15.60 7.51–16.56 | 27.46 19.97–34.95 17.92–37.00 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.52 6.58–12.46 5.75–13.29 | 7.90 5.22–10.58 4.49–11.32 | 17.43 11.80–23.05 10.24–24.62 | 61% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.79 1.48–6.33 | 3.56 1.91–5.21 1.41–5.70 | 7.47 3.93–11.00 2.90–12.04 | 48% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.51 3.30–7.73 2.73–8.30 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.85–6.92 | 9.90 5.69–14.12 4.58–15.22 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.31 44.52–58.10 42.85–59.77 | 48.77 41.98–55.55 40.31–57.22 | — | 54% 42% |
| Passes | 552 485–619 467–638 | 502 436–569 418–586 | 1055 921–1188 885–1224 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.64 67.61–75.67 66.32–76.96 | 75.17 70.85–79.49 69.54–80.80 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.48–13.15 6.72–13.91 | 11.68 8.73–14.62 7.99–15.37 | 21.99 16.21–27.78 14.71–29.28 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.70 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 3.28 1.02–5.53 0.43–6.12 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.65–6.12 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.50 1.94–5.05 1.52–5.48 | 6.54 3.55–9.53 2.74–10.35 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.