Ligue 1·Regular Season - 24·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.262.99safe0.76–2.700.40–2.111.17–4.81safer0.51–2.950.17–2.340.69–5.29
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.549.84safe3.43–7.162.80–6.296.23–13.44safer2.94–7.652.34–6.755.28–14.40
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1312.2428.37safe12.21–20.068.67–15.8020.88–35.86safer11.12–21.157.71–16.7618.83–37.91
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.548.3118.85safe7.60–13.485.63–10.9913.23–24.48safer6.77–14.314.89–11.7311.66–26.04
Blocked shots
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.093.647.73safe2.21–5.971.99–5.304.20–11.27safer1.66–6.521.50–5.793.16–12.30
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.9610.65safe3.48–7.912.96–6.966.44–14.87safer2.91–8.482.42–7.495.33–15.98
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction52.7547.13safe45.96–59.5440.35–53.92safer44.29–61.2138.68–55.59
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction494429923safe426–561362–495789–1056safer408–579345–513753–1092
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction71.3772.96safe67.34–75.4068.63–77.28safer66.05–76.6967.32–78.59
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0312.0225.05safe10.19–15.869.08–14.9719.27–30.83safer9.43–16.628.33–15.7217.76–32.34
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.743.48safe0.58–2.900.65–2.841.23–5.73safer0.28–3.200.36–3.120.64–6.32
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.214.02safe0.76–2.851.08–3.341.84–6.19safer0.49–3.120.79–3.631.28–6.75
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.776.67safe1.46–4.342.21–5.323.68–9.66safer1.08–4.721.79–5.752.86–10.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 49% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.29 3.43–7.16 2.94–7.65 | 4.54 2.80–6.29 2.34–6.75 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.28–14.40 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 16.13 12.21–20.06 11.12–21.15 | 12.24 8.67–15.80 7.71–16.76 | 28.37 20.88–35.86 18.83–37.91 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.54 7.60–13.48 6.77–14.31 | 8.31 5.63–10.99 4.89–11.73 | 18.85 13.23–24.48 11.66–26.04 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.21–5.97 1.66–6.52 | 3.64 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 7.73 4.20–11.27 3.16–12.30 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.42–7.49 | 10.65 6.44–14.87 5.33–15.98 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 52.75 45.96–59.54 44.29–61.21 | 47.13 40.35–53.92 38.68–55.59 | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 494 426–561 408–579 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 923 789–1056 753–1092 | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.37 67.34–75.40 66.05–76.69 | 72.96 68.63–77.28 67.32–78.59 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 13.03 10.19–15.86 9.43–16.62 | 12.02 9.08–14.97 8.33–15.72 | 25.05 19.27–30.83 17.76–32.34 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.74 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.12 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.76–2.85 0.49–3.12 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.02 1.84–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.46–4.34 1.08–4.72 | 3.77 2.21–5.32 1.79–5.75 | 6.67 3.68–9.66 2.86–10.47 | 30% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.