Ligue 1·Regular Season - 25·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.392.89safe0.53–2.470.54–2.251.07–4.72safer0.28–2.720.31–2.480.59–5.20
Shots on target
37%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.404.869.26safe2.54–6.263.12–6.615.66–12.87safer2.05–6.752.66–7.074.70–13.83
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4913.6327.12safe9.56–17.4110.07–17.1919.63–34.61safer8.47–18.519.11–18.1517.58–36.66
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.558.3316.87safe5.60–11.495.65–11.0111.25–22.50safer4.77–12.324.91–11.759.68–24.06
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.296.86safe1.69–5.461.63–4.943.33–10.40safer1.15–6.001.14–5.432.29–11.44
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.604.6910.29safe3.39–7.812.69–6.696.07–14.50safer2.81–8.392.15–7.224.97–15.61
Possession %
73%
24%
homeawayprediction55.7644.59safe48.97–62.5537.80–51.37safer47.30–64.2236.13–53.05
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction528405934safe461–596339–472800–1067safer443–614321–489764–1103
Pass accuracy %
54%
40%
homeawayprediction70.5769.21safe66.54–74.6064.88–73.53safer65.25–75.8963.58–74.84
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4413.7828.22safe11.60–17.2810.84–16.7322.44–34.00safer10.85–18.0310.09–17.4720.93–35.51
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.813.71safe0.74–3.060.72–2.901.45–5.96safer0.43–3.360.43–3.190.86–6.55
Yellow cards
35%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.933.63safe0.66–2.750.80–3.061.45–5.81safer0.39–3.020.51–3.350.90–6.37
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.006.08safe1.65–4.521.44–4.553.09–9.07safer1.26–4.911.01–4.982.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.26 2.05–6.75 | 4.86 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.83 | 37% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.49 9.56–17.41 8.47–18.51 | 13.63 10.07–17.19 9.11–18.15 | 27.12 19.63–34.61 17.58–36.66 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 5.60–11.49 4.77–12.32 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 16.87 11.25–22.50 9.68–24.06 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.69–5.46 1.15–6.00 | 3.29 1.63–4.94 1.14–5.43 | 6.86 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.44 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.60 3.39–7.81 2.81–8.39 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 10.29 6.07–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 55.76 48.97–62.55 47.30–64.22 | 44.59 37.80–51.37 36.13–53.05 | — | 73% 24% |
| Passes | 528 461–596 443–614 | 405 339–472 321–489 | 934 800–1067 764–1103 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.57 66.54–74.60 65.25–75.89 | 69.21 64.88–73.53 63.58–74.84 | — | 54% 40% |
| Fouls | 14.44 11.60–17.28 10.85–18.03 | 13.78 10.84–16.73 10.09–17.47 | 28.22 22.44–34.00 20.93–35.51 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.43–3.36 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.71 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.66–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.63 1.45–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 35% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 3.00 1.44–4.55 1.01–4.98 | 6.08 3.09–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+