Ligue 1·Regular Season - 25·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.522.69safe0.20–2.140.67–2.370.87–4.52safer0.00–2.390.44–2.600.39–4.99
Shots on target
36%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.034.598.62safe2.17–5.892.85–6.335.01–12.22safer1.68–6.382.38–6.804.06–13.18
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1513.1626.30safe9.22–17.079.59–16.7218.81–33.79safer8.13–18.168.63–17.6816.76–35.84
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.238.5016.73safe5.29–11.175.82–11.1811.11–22.36safer4.46–12.005.08–11.929.54–23.92
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.156.53safe1.49–5.261.50–4.813.00–10.07safer0.95–5.801.01–5.301.96–11.10
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.455.0010.45safe3.24–7.673.00–7.006.24–14.67safer2.67–8.242.47–7.545.13–15.78
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction45.7153.98safe38.92–52.5047.19–60.76safer37.25–54.1745.52–62.43
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction372449820safe304–439382–515686–954safer286–457365–533651–989
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction62.4669.30safe58.43–66.4864.98–73.63safer57.13–67.7863.67–74.94
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4113.8525.26safe8.57–14.2410.91–16.8019.48–31.04safer7.81–15.0010.16–17.5517.97–32.55
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.843.60safe0.60–2.920.75–2.931.35–5.85safer0.30–3.220.46–3.220.76–6.44
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.743.29safe0.50–2.600.61–2.871.11–5.47safer0.24–2.870.32–3.160.56–6.03
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.835.92safe1.66–4.531.27–4.392.93–8.92safer1.27–4.920.85–4.812.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.52 0.67–2.37 0.44–2.60 | 2.69 0.87–4.52 0.39–4.99 | 29% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.03 2.17–5.89 1.68–6.38 | 4.59 2.85–6.33 2.38–6.80 | 8.62 5.01–12.22 4.06–13.18 | 36% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 13.15 9.22–17.07 8.13–18.16 | 13.16 9.59–16.72 8.63–17.68 | 26.30 18.81–33.79 16.76–35.84 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.23 5.29–11.17 4.46–12.00 | 8.50 5.82–11.18 5.08–11.92 | 16.73 11.11–22.36 9.54–23.92 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.49–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 3.15 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.53 3.00–10.07 1.96–11.10 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.67 2.67–8.24 | 5.00 3.00–7.00 2.47–7.54 | 10.45 6.24–14.67 5.13–15.78 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 45.71 38.92–52.50 37.25–54.17 | 53.98 47.19–60.76 45.52–62.43 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 372 304–439 286–457 | 449 382–515 365–533 | 820 686–954 651–989 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.46 58.43–66.48 57.13–67.78 | 69.30 64.98–73.63 63.67–74.94 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.57–14.24 7.81–15.00 | 13.85 10.91–16.80 10.16–17.55 | 25.26 19.48–31.04 17.97–32.55 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.84 0.75–2.93 0.46–3.22 | 3.60 1.35–5.85 0.76–6.44 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 1.74 0.61–2.87 0.32–3.16 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.92 | 2.83 1.27–4.39 0.85–4.81 | 5.92 2.93–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.