Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.632.97safe0.37–2.310.77–2.481.15–4.79safer0.12–2.560.54–2.710.67–5.27
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.679.27safe2.74–6.472.92–6.415.67–12.88safer2.25–6.962.46–6.884.71–13.83
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8913.3427.23safe9.97–17.829.78–16.9019.74–34.72safer8.88–18.918.82–17.8617.69–36.77
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.299.3217.61safe5.35–11.236.64–12.0011.99–23.23safer4.52–12.065.90–12.7410.42–24.80
Blocked shots
30%
14%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.478.01safe1.66–5.422.82–6.124.48–11.55safer1.12–5.972.33–6.623.44–12.58
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.859.96safe2.90–7.332.85–6.855.75–14.17safer2.33–7.902.31–7.384.64–15.28
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction50.7449.94safe43.95–57.5343.15–56.72safer42.28–59.2041.48–58.39
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction493470964safe426–561404–537830–1097safer408–579386–554794–1133
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction69.3075.24safe65.27–73.3370.92–79.57safer63.98–74.6269.61–80.87
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7311.5523.28safe8.89–14.568.61–14.5017.50–29.06safer8.13–15.327.86–15.2515.99–30.57
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.763.52safe0.60–2.920.66–2.851.26–5.77safer0.30–3.220.38–3.140.68–6.36
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.053.74safe0.64–2.740.92–3.181.56–5.92safer0.37–3.000.63–3.471.00–6.47
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.246.37safe1.69–4.561.69–4.803.38–9.36safer1.30–4.951.26–5.222.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.63 0.77–2.48 0.54–2.71 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.67–5.27 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.47 2.25–6.96 | 4.67 2.92–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 9.27 5.67–12.88 4.71–13.83 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.89 9.97–17.82 8.88–18.91 | 13.34 9.78–16.90 8.82–17.86 | 27.23 19.74–34.72 17.69–36.77 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.23 4.52–12.06 | 9.32 6.64–12.00 5.90–12.74 | 17.61 11.99–23.23 10.42–24.80 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.12–5.97 | 4.47 2.82–6.12 2.33–6.62 | 8.01 4.48–11.55 3.44–12.58 | 30% 14% 56% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.31–7.38 | 9.96 5.75–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.74 43.95–57.53 42.28–59.20 | 49.94 43.15–56.72 41.48–58.39 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 493 426–561 408–579 | 470 404–537 386–554 | 964 830–1097 794–1133 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.30 65.27–73.33 63.98–74.62 | 75.24 70.92–79.57 69.61–80.87 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.89–14.56 8.13–15.32 | 11.55 8.61–14.50 7.86–15.25 | 23.28 17.50–29.06 15.99–30.57 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.76 0.66–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.68–6.36 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.69–4.56 1.30–4.95 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.57–10.18 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.