Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.813.04safe0.26–2.200.96–2.661.21–4.86safer0.01–2.450.73–2.890.74–5.34
Shots on target
31%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.565.5910.15safe2.70–6.423.85–7.336.54–13.75safer2.21–6.913.38–7.805.59–14.71
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7415.0228.76safe9.82–17.6711.46–18.5821.28–36.25safer8.73–18.7610.50–19.5419.22–38.30
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.899.6518.53safe5.94–11.836.97–12.3312.91–24.16safer5.11–12.666.23–13.0711.34–25.72
Blocked shots
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.604.097.68safe1.71–5.482.43–5.744.15–11.22safer1.17–6.021.94–6.233.11–12.25
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.545.209.73safe2.32–6.753.20–7.205.52–13.95safer1.75–7.322.66–7.734.41–15.06
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.8553.63safe40.05–53.6446.85–60.42safer38.39–55.3145.18–62.09
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction457509966safe390–524443–576832–1100safer371–542425–593797–1135
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction68.2176.16safe64.18–72.2471.84–80.49safer62.89–73.5370.53–81.80
Fouls
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4910.3922.87safe9.65–15.327.44–13.3317.09–28.65safer8.89–16.086.69–14.0815.58–30.16
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.993.76safe0.60–2.920.90–3.091.50–6.01safer0.30–3.220.61–3.370.91–6.60
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.783.49safe0.67–2.770.65–2.911.32–5.67safer0.40–3.030.36–3.200.76–6.23
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.682.926.60safe2.25–5.121.36–4.473.61–9.59safer1.86–5.500.94–4.902.79–10.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.81 0.96–2.66 0.73–2.89 | 3.04 1.21–4.86 0.74–5.34 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.42 2.21–6.91 | 5.59 3.85–7.33 3.38–7.80 | 10.15 6.54–13.75 5.59–14.71 | 31% 56% |
| Total shots | 13.74 9.82–17.67 8.73–18.76 | 15.02 11.46–18.58 10.50–19.54 | 28.76 21.28–36.25 19.22–38.30 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.94–11.83 5.11–12.66 | 9.65 6.97–12.33 6.23–13.07 | 18.53 12.91–24.16 11.34–25.72 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.71–5.48 1.17–6.02 | 4.09 2.43–5.74 1.94–6.23 | 7.68 4.15–11.22 3.11–12.25 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.32–6.75 1.75–7.32 | 5.20 3.20–7.20 2.66–7.73 | 9.73 5.52–13.95 4.41–15.06 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 46.85 40.05–53.64 38.39–55.31 | 53.63 46.85–60.42 45.18–62.09 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 457 390–524 371–542 | 509 443–576 425–593 | 966 832–1100 797–1135 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.21 64.18–72.24 62.89–73.53 | 76.16 71.84–80.49 70.53–81.80 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.49 9.65–15.32 8.89–16.08 | 10.39 7.44–13.33 6.69–14.08 | 22.87 17.09–28.65 15.58–30.16 | 63% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.99 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.37 | 3.76 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.60 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.49 1.32–5.67 0.76–6.23 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.68 2.25–5.12 1.86–5.50 | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.94–4.90 | 6.60 3.61–9.59 2.79–10.40 | 54% 15% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+