Ligue 1·Regular Season - 26·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
20%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.172.223.39safe0.20–2.141.36–3.071.56–5.21safer0.00–2.391.13–3.301.08–5.69
Shots on target
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction4.086.2810.35safe2.21–5.944.53–8.026.75–13.96safer1.73–6.434.07–8.485.79–14.91
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0115.6126.62safe7.09–14.9412.04–19.1719.13–34.10safer6.00–16.0311.08–20.1317.08–36.16
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction7.4110.5217.93safe4.47–10.367.84–13.2012.31–23.56safer3.64–11.197.10–13.9410.74–25.12
Blocked shots
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.994.557.54safe1.11–4.872.89–6.204.00–11.07safer0.57–5.422.40–6.692.97–12.11
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.015.359.36safe1.80–6.233.35–7.355.15–13.57safer1.23–6.802.81–7.884.04–14.68
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction36.7264.57safe29.93–43.5157.78–71.35safer28.26–45.1856.11–73.02
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction4136901104safe346–480624–757970–1237safer328–498606–774934–1273
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction68.5984.48safe64.57–72.6280.16–88.81safer63.27–73.9278.85–90.12
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction10.889.3820.26safe8.04–13.726.44–12.3314.48–26.05safer7.29–14.485.69–13.0812.98–27.55
Offsides
58%
19%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.351.443.79safe1.19–3.510.35–2.531.54–6.05safer0.89–3.810.06–2.820.95–6.63
Yellow cards
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.302.99safe0.64–2.740.17–2.430.81–5.17safer0.37–3.000.00–2.720.25–5.73
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.240.00–0.48safer0.00–0.390.00–0.380.00–0.77
GK saves
55%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.726.25safe2.10–4.971.16–4.273.26–9.24safer1.71–5.360.74–4.702.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 2.22 1.36–3.07 1.13–3.30 | 3.39 1.56–5.21 1.08–5.69 | 19% 20% 61% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.21–5.94 1.73–6.43 | 6.28 4.53–8.02 4.07–8.48 | 10.35 6.75–13.96 5.79–14.91 | 20% 70% |
| Total shots | 11.01 7.09–14.94 6.00–16.03 | 15.61 12.04–19.17 11.08–20.13 | 26.62 19.13–34.10 17.08–36.16 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 7.41 4.47–10.36 3.64–11.19 | 10.52 7.84–13.20 7.10–13.94 | 17.93 12.31–23.56 10.74–25.12 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.57–5.42 | 4.55 2.89–6.20 2.40–6.69 | 7.54 4.00–11.07 2.97–12.11 | 22% 65% |
| Corners | 4.01 1.80–6.23 1.23–6.80 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.81–7.88 | 9.36 5.15–13.57 4.04–14.68 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 36.72 29.93–43.51 28.26–45.18 | 64.57 57.78–71.35 56.11–73.02 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 413 346–480 328–498 | 690 624–757 606–774 | 1104 970–1237 934–1273 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.59 64.57–72.62 63.27–73.92 | 84.48 80.16–88.81 78.85–90.12 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.04–13.72 7.29–14.48 | 9.38 6.44–12.33 5.69–13.08 | 20.26 14.48–26.05 12.98–27.55 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.51 0.89–3.81 | 1.44 0.35–2.53 0.06–2.82 | 3.79 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.63 | 58% 19% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 1.30 0.17–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 2.99 0.81–5.17 0.25–5.73 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.06 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.97 1.71–5.36 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.74–4.70 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.06 | 55% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.