Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.532.85safe0.35–2.290.68–2.381.03–4.67safer0.10–2.540.45–2.610.55–5.15
Shots on target
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.455.039.47safe2.58–6.313.28–6.775.87–13.08safer2.09–6.802.82–7.234.91–14.03
Total shots
28%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1514.7526.90safe8.23–16.0811.18–18.3119.41–34.39safer7.14–17.1710.22–19.2717.36–36.44
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.009.2317.23safe5.06–10.946.55–11.9111.61–22.86safer4.23–11.775.81–12.6510.04–24.42
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.756.93safe1.29–5.062.10–5.413.39–10.46safer0.75–5.601.61–5.902.36–11.50
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.269.87safe2.40–6.833.26–7.265.66–14.09safer1.83–7.402.73–7.794.55–15.19
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.1351.97safe41.34–54.9245.19–58.76safer39.67–56.5943.52–60.43
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction471489961safe404–538423–556827–1094safer386–557406–573791–1130
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction68.7974.36safe64.76–72.8270.04–78.68safer63.47–74.1268.73–79.99
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9313.4824.41safe8.09–13.7710.53–16.4218.63–30.19safer7.34–14.539.79–17.1717.12–31.70
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.773.51safe0.58–2.900.67–2.861.26–5.76safer0.28–3.210.39–3.150.67–6.35
Yellow cards
29%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.923.38safe0.41–2.510.79–3.051.20–5.56safer0.15–2.780.50–3.340.65–6.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
49%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.453.036.48safe2.02–4.891.48–4.593.49–9.48safer1.63–5.281.05–5.012.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.53 0.68–2.38 0.45–2.61 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.58–6.31 2.09–6.80 | 5.03 3.28–6.77 2.82–7.23 | 9.47 5.87–13.08 4.91–14.03 | 36% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.15 8.23–16.08 7.14–17.17 | 14.75 11.18–18.31 10.22–19.27 | 26.90 19.41–34.39 17.36–36.44 | 28% 66% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 9.23 6.55–11.91 5.81–12.65 | 17.23 11.61–22.86 10.04–24.42 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.29–5.06 0.75–5.60 | 3.75 2.10–5.41 1.61–5.90 | 6.93 3.39–10.46 2.36–11.50 | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.83 1.83–7.40 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.73–7.79 | 9.87 5.66–14.09 4.55–15.19 | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 48.13 41.34–54.92 39.67–56.59 | 51.97 45.19–58.76 43.52–60.43 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 471 404–538 386–557 | 489 423–556 406–573 | 961 827–1094 791–1130 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.79 64.76–72.82 63.47–74.12 | 74.36 70.04–78.68 68.73–79.99 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.09–13.77 7.34–14.53 | 13.48 10.53–16.42 9.79–17.17 | 24.41 18.63–30.19 17.12–31.70 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.21 | 1.77 0.67–2.86 0.39–3.15 | 3.51 1.26–5.76 0.67–6.35 | 38% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.15–2.78 | 1.92 0.79–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 3.38 1.20–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 29% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.45 2.02–4.89 1.63–5.28 | 3.03 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 6.48 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 49% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.