Ligue 1·Regular Season - 27·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.023.05safe1.07–3.000.17–1.871.23–4.88safer0.81–3.250.00–2.100.75–5.36
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.753.509.25safe3.89–7.611.76–5.255.65–12.86safer3.40–8.101.30–5.714.69–13.81
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.119.7425.85safe12.18–20.036.18–13.3118.36–33.34safer11.09–21.125.22–14.2716.31–35.39
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction11.856.4518.29safe8.90–14.793.77–9.1312.67–23.92safer8.07–15.623.03–9.8711.10–25.48
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.482.647.12safe2.60–6.370.98–4.293.59–10.66safer2.06–6.910.49–4.782.55–11.69
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.404.0910.49safe4.19–8.612.09–6.096.27–14.70safer3.61–9.191.55–6.625.17–15.81
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.7045.84safe47.91–61.4939.06–52.63safer46.24–63.1637.39–54.30
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction506425931safe439–574359–491798–1065safer421–592341–509762–1101
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction74.3973.43safe70.36–78.4269.11–77.76safer69.07–79.7167.80–79.07
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0612.4323.49safe8.23–13.909.48–15.3717.71–29.27safer7.47–14.668.73–16.1216.20–30.78
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.543.60safe0.90–3.220.45–2.641.35–5.86safer0.60–3.520.16–2.920.76–6.45
Yellow cards
27%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.193.74safe0.50–2.601.06–3.321.56–5.92safer0.23–2.860.77–3.611.00–6.47
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
24%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.686.11safe1.00–3.872.12–5.233.12–9.10safer0.61–4.261.70–5.662.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.07–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 1.02 0.17–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 3.05 1.23–4.88 0.75–5.36 | 61% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.75 3.89–7.61 3.40–8.10 | 3.50 1.76–5.25 1.30–5.71 | 9.25 5.65–12.86 4.69–13.81 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.11 12.18–20.03 11.09–21.12 | 9.74 6.18–13.31 5.22–14.27 | 25.85 18.36–33.34 16.31–35.39 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.85 8.90–14.79 8.07–15.62 | 6.45 3.77–9.13 3.03–9.87 | 18.29 12.67–23.92 11.10–25.48 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.48 2.60–6.37 2.06–6.91 | 2.64 0.98–4.29 0.49–4.78 | 7.12 3.59–10.66 2.55–11.69 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.40 4.19–8.61 3.61–9.19 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.55–6.62 | 10.49 6.27–14.70 5.17–15.81 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.70 47.91–61.49 46.24–63.16 | 45.84 39.06–52.63 37.39–54.30 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 506 439–574 421–592 | 425 359–491 341–509 | 931 798–1065 762–1101 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.39 70.36–78.42 69.07–79.71 | 73.43 69.11–77.76 67.80–79.07 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.06 8.23–13.90 7.47–14.66 | 12.43 9.48–15.37 8.73–16.12 | 23.49 17.71–29.27 16.20–30.78 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.52 | 1.54 0.45–2.64 0.16–2.92 | 3.60 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 50% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.86 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 27% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.00–3.87 0.61–4.26 | 3.68 2.12–5.23 1.70–5.66 | 6.11 3.12–9.10 2.31–9.92 | 24% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.