Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
23%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.822.81safe0.02–1.960.97–2.680.99–4.64safer0.00–2.210.74–2.900.51–5.12
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.514.978.49safe1.65–5.373.23–6.724.88–12.09safer1.16–5.862.77–7.183.93–13.05
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3113.8325.14safe7.39–15.2410.26–17.3917.65–32.62safer6.29–16.339.31–18.3515.60–34.68
Shots in box
24%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction6.759.0915.84safe3.81–9.706.41–11.7710.22–21.46safer2.98–10.525.67–12.508.65–23.03
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.966.77safe0.92–4.692.31–5.613.23–10.30safer0.38–5.231.82–6.112.20–11.34
Corners
36%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.829.09safe2.06–6.492.82–6.824.88–13.30safer1.49–7.062.29–7.353.77–14.41
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.4655.06safe37.67–51.2548.27–61.84safer36.00–52.9246.60–63.51
Passes
29%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction4915561047safe424–558490–622913–1181safer406–576472–640878–1216
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction70.6477.48safe66.61–74.6673.15–81.80safer65.31–75.9671.84–83.11
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6310.5321.16safe7.79–13.477.59–13.4815.38–26.95safer7.04–14.226.84–14.2313.88–28.45
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.423.03safe0.44–2.770.33–2.520.77–5.28safer0.14–3.070.04–2.800.19–5.87
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.663.31safe0.61–2.700.53–2.791.14–5.49safer0.34–2.970.24–3.080.58–6.05
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.646.06safe1.98–4.861.09–4.203.07–9.06safer1.60–5.240.66–4.632.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.82 0.97–2.68 0.74–2.90 | 2.81 0.99–4.64 0.51–5.12 | 20% 23% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.51 1.65–5.37 1.16–5.86 | 4.97 3.23–6.72 2.77–7.18 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.93–13.05 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.31 7.39–15.24 6.29–16.33 | 13.83 10.26–17.39 9.31–18.35 | 25.14 17.65–32.62 15.60–34.68 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 6.75 3.81–9.70 2.98–10.52 | 9.09 6.41–11.77 5.67–12.50 | 15.84 10.22–21.46 8.65–23.03 | 24% 68% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.92–4.69 0.38–5.23 | 3.96 2.31–5.61 1.82–6.11 | 6.77 3.23–10.30 2.20–11.34 | 26% 14% 60% |
| Corners | 4.27 2.06–6.49 1.49–7.06 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.29–7.35 | 9.09 4.88–13.30 3.77–14.41 | 36% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.46 37.67–51.25 36.00–52.92 | 55.06 48.27–61.84 46.60–63.51 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 491 424–558 406–576 | 556 490–622 472–640 | 1047 913–1181 878–1216 | 29% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.64 66.61–74.66 65.31–75.96 | 77.48 73.15–81.80 71.84–83.11 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 10.63 7.79–13.47 7.04–14.22 | 10.53 7.59–13.48 6.84–14.23 | 21.16 15.38–26.95 13.88–28.45 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.14–3.07 | 1.42 0.33–2.52 0.04–2.80 | 3.03 0.77–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 1.66 0.53–2.79 0.24–3.08 | 3.31 1.14–5.49 0.58–6.05 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.42 1.98–4.86 1.60–5.24 | 2.64 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.