Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.182.47safe0.32–2.260.32–2.030.64–4.29safer0.07–2.510.09–2.260.17–4.77
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.868.11safe2.39–6.112.12–5.604.51–11.72safer1.90–6.601.65–6.073.55–12.67
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9110.2524.16safe9.98–17.836.69–13.8116.67–31.64safer8.89–18.925.73–14.7714.62–33.69
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.137.0816.21safe6.19–12.084.40–9.7610.59–21.83safer5.36–12.903.66–10.509.02–23.40
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.836.59safe1.87–5.641.18–4.493.05–10.12safer1.33–6.180.69–4.982.02–11.16
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.309.76safe3.24–7.672.30–6.305.54–13.97safer2.67–8.241.77–6.834.43–15.08
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.5950.01safe43.80–57.3843.22–56.79safer42.13–59.0541.55–58.46
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction468444913safe401–536378–511779–1046safer383–554360–528743–1082
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction70.5870.05safe66.55–74.6165.72–74.37safer65.26–75.9064.41–75.68
Fouls
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.209.7423.95safe11.37–17.046.80–12.6918.16–29.73safer10.61–17.806.05–13.4416.66–31.23
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.493.25safe0.59–2.910.40–2.590.99–5.50safer0.29–3.210.11–2.870.40–6.09
Yellow cards
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.533.08safe0.50–2.600.40–2.660.91–5.26safer0.23–2.870.11–2.950.35–5.82
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.633.115.75safe1.20–4.071.56–4.672.75–8.74safer0.81–4.461.13–5.091.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.18 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.47 0.64–4.29 0.17–4.77 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 3.86 2.12–5.60 1.65–6.07 | 8.11 4.51–11.72 3.55–12.67 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.91 9.98–17.83 8.89–18.92 | 10.25 6.69–13.81 5.73–14.77 | 24.16 16.67–31.64 14.62–33.69 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.13 6.19–12.08 5.36–12.90 | 7.08 4.40–9.76 3.66–10.50 | 16.21 10.59–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.64 1.33–6.18 | 2.83 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 6.59 3.05–10.12 2.02–11.16 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.24–7.67 2.67–8.24 | 4.30 2.30–6.30 1.77–6.83 | 9.76 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.08 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 50.59 43.80–57.38 42.13–59.05 | 50.01 43.22–56.79 41.55–58.46 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 468 401–536 383–554 | 444 378–511 360–528 | 913 779–1046 743–1082 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.58 66.55–74.61 65.26–75.90 | 70.05 65.72–74.37 64.41–75.68 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 14.20 11.37–17.04 10.61–17.80 | 9.74 6.80–12.69 6.05–13.44 | 23.95 18.16–29.73 16.66–31.23 | 79% 15% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.49 0.40–2.59 0.11–2.87 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.87 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 3.08 0.91–5.26 0.35–5.82 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 3.11 1.56–4.67 1.13–5.09 | 5.75 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.