Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.582.86safe0.32–2.250.73–2.441.04–4.69safer0.06–2.500.50–2.660.56–5.17
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.085.369.45safe2.22–5.953.62–7.115.84–13.05safer1.73–6.443.16–7.574.89–14.01
Total shots
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2914.1326.42safe8.37–16.2210.57–17.6918.94–33.91safer7.28–17.319.61–18.6516.89–35.96
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.439.3916.81safe4.48–10.376.71–12.0711.19–22.44safer3.65–11.205.97–12.819.62–24.00
Blocked shots
30%
14%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.344.257.58safe1.45–5.222.59–5.904.05–11.12safer0.91–5.762.10–6.393.01–12.15
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.609.34safe2.52–6.952.60–6.605.12–13.55safer1.95–7.522.07–7.144.02–14.66
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2454.83safe38.45–52.0348.05–61.62safer36.78–53.7046.38–63.29
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction4855451030safe418–552478–611896–1163safer399–570461–629860–1199
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction68.0775.89safe64.04–72.1071.56–80.21safer62.75–73.3970.25–81.52
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4811.9724.45safe9.64–15.329.02–14.9118.66–30.23safer8.88–16.078.27–15.6617.16–31.73
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.733.31safe0.42–2.740.64–2.821.06–5.57safer0.12–3.040.35–3.110.47–6.16
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.713.47safe0.71–2.800.58–2.841.29–5.65safer0.44–3.070.29–3.130.73–6.20
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.472.876.34safe2.03–4.911.31–4.433.35–9.33safer1.65–5.290.89–4.852.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.32–2.25 0.06–2.50 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.66 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.22–5.95 1.73–6.44 | 5.36 3.62–7.11 3.16–7.57 | 9.45 5.84–13.05 4.89–14.01 | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 12.29 8.37–16.22 7.28–17.31 | 14.13 10.57–17.69 9.61–18.65 | 26.42 18.94–33.91 16.89–35.96 | 32% 60% |
| Shots in box | 7.43 4.48–10.37 3.65–11.20 | 9.39 6.71–12.07 5.97–12.81 | 16.81 11.19–22.44 9.62–24.00 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 1.45–5.22 0.91–5.76 | 4.25 2.59–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 7.58 4.05–11.12 3.01–12.15 | 30% 14% 56% |
| Corners | 4.73 2.52–6.95 1.95–7.52 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.14 | 9.34 5.12–13.55 4.02–14.66 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 45.24 38.45–52.03 36.78–53.70 | 54.83 48.05–61.62 46.38–63.29 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 399–570 | 545 478–611 461–629 | 1030 896–1163 860–1199 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.07 64.04–72.10 62.75–73.39 | 75.89 71.56–80.21 70.25–81.52 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.48 9.64–15.32 8.88–16.07 | 11.97 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.66 | 24.45 18.66–30.23 17.16–31.73 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.73 0.64–2.82 0.35–3.11 | 3.31 1.06–5.57 0.47–6.16 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.20 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.47 2.03–4.91 1.65–5.29 | 2.87 1.31–4.43 0.89–4.85 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.54–10.15 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+